A few lake effect rain showers continue near Lake Superior tonight and Tuesday, dry elsewhere; Rain chances area-wide Wednesday into Thursday; Colder risks next week including a chance for a few snow showers

An active weather pattern continues in the U.S. today with two main lows of interest. One is moving quickly east across the Ohio Valley, this is the system which produced the severe weather and tornadoes over parts of the Midwest on Sunday.

The second system is the one that brought the heavy rain, flooding and damaging winds to parts of California, Oregon and Washington on Sunday. This system is splitting into two, with energy lifting ENE across western Canada, while another piece of energy (stronger of the two) digs SSE into the southern Rockies today.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Monday, October 25, 2021.

Severe weather reports from Sunday.

Around a dozen tornadoes were reported on Sunday over Missouri and southwest Illinois.

T=Tornado reports
W=Damaging wind reports
H=Large hail reports

Three supercell/tornadic thunderstorms developed Sunday evening over south-central Missouri into southwest Illinois — Here are the rotation tracks of these supercell storms.

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Another day of lake effect clouds and scattered lake effect rain showers near Lake Superior today thanks to NE winds and cool air moving over the warmer waters of Lake Superior.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Monday afternoon, October 25, 2021.

Will continue to see a few lake effect rain showers through Tuesday, although the focus for these showers is forecast to shift farther north along the North Shore of Lake Superior (north of the Twin Ports) on Tuesday as winds become more ESE vs. NE.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast thru 7 PM Tuesday.

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Thunderstorm potential!

There is a chance that we see a few thunderstorms in parts of the Northland Wednesday morning as we get a push of higher elevated CAPE to move NE out of southern Minnesota with values generally <500 J/kg forecast in our area, this should be enough to produce a potential for a few storms to develop, but severe weather is not expected.

18z NAM model Most Unstable Cape forecast valid 4 PM Tuesday to 7 PM Wednesday.

Rain chances continue for midweek, but there are differences in the computer models on where most of this rain will be, with the GFS and Euro models favoring more of central and western Minnesota, with much less rain farther east including for the Twin Ports, Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin, while the NAM model favors most of the Northland for highest rain totals. Stay tuned.

As for the timing of this rain — Looks like we could see an initial wave of showers and embedded thunderstorms move across the Northland Wednesday morning followed by some more rain Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday.

High temperatures from Tuesday through Saturday will remain close to normal to slightly above normal in the Northland with highs generally in the mid 40s to low-mid 50s.

Colder risks continue for next week as we see a pattern change occur due to an upper level low setting up across central Canada.

Could be looking at a few days with highs in the 30s to lower 40s in the Northland early next week, and there is also a chance that we see a little snow as well in parts of the area, but nothing significant in terms of accumulations the way it looks now.

500mb Forecast valid for Sunday-Monday, October 31-November 1, 2021.

Tim

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