Some sun returns Friday and Saturday; Turning colder Halloween through much of next week with some snow showers possible early in the week

There’s been quite a bit of rain over the last 24 hours from International Falls south to the Brainerd Lakes, and east to the Aitkin area with totals of around an inch or more reported, but rainfall totals dropped off significantly farther to the east.

No signs of any major storms bringing rain or snow to the Northland at least through the middle of next week, but there likely will be some passing snow showers and flurries early next week, with some accumulating snow (lake effect) possible in far northern Minnesota and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin and upper Michigan for early next week.

MRMS radar loop ending 5:20 PM Thursday, October 28, 2021.

A steadier rain covered southeast Minnesota into central Wisconsin late this afternoon while areas of light rain and drizzle were found farther north and west across eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Areas of light rain and drizzle will continue over parts of northeast and east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin tonight, but this rain is forecast to diminish from W-E after Midnight.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending 7 AM Friday.

Updated precipitation totals/departure from normal for October 2021 — Thru 5 PM Thursday, October 28.

Brainerd, MN: 3.55″; +1.33″ above normal
International Falls, MN: 2.76″; +0.73″ above normal
Hibbing, MN: 2.09″; -0.09″ below normal
Duluth, MN: 1.89″; -0.78″ below normal
Ashland, WI: 1.77″; -0.87″ below normal

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The Northland continued to be blanketed by widespread clouds today, but things might change a bit on Friday and Saturday as at least some breaks in the clouds should develop.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Thursday, October 28, 2021.

A large low pressure system was over Missouri late this afternoon with a plume of moisture stretching all the way from the Gulf of Mexico to the Mid-Atlantic, northwest to the Great Lakes and upper Midwest, then south into the Central Plains.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Thursday, October 28, 2021.

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Rainfall totals over the last few days have varied considerably across the area with >1″ of rain over western portions of the Northland to little to no rain in the Arrowhead, and also over eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin.

24-Hour Rainfall Reports from October 27-28, 2021.
Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

Totals below are thru 5 PM Thursday, October 28, 2021.

Brainerd, MN: 1.37″
Hill City, MN: 1.17″
Bigfork, MN: 1.04″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.98″
Littlefork, MN: 0.96″
Aitkin, MN: 0.96″
International Falls, MN: 0.82″
McGregor, MN: 0.75″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.71″
Pine River, MN: 0.56″
Hinckley, MN: 0.44″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.36″
Skibo, MN: 0.20″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.14″
Minong, WI: 0.10″
Siren, WI: 0.10″
Orr, MN: 0.09″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.07″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.07″
Cloquet, MN: 0.03″
Duluth Airport: 0.03″
Superior Airport: 0.03″
Hayward, WI: 0.01″

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A colder weather pattern is likely in the Northland for much of next week as we see an upper level ridge develop over western Canada while an upper low/trough sets up across central/eastern portions of Canada — This will all lead to a chillier N-NW flow developing across the upper Midwest next week.

500mb forecast valid from October 31, 2021 to Thursday, November 4, 2021.

High temperature forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin valid October 29 through November 3, 2021.

Friday and Saturday: Low to mid 50s.
Halloween (Sunday): 40s.
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday: Mid 30s to low 40s.

A larger view of forecast high temperatures for October 29 through November 3, 2021.

Scattered snow showers and flurries are possible over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin early next week, but little if any snow accumulation is expected in most of the Northland, with the exception being for areas downwind of Lake Superior and also for areas downwind of some of the larger inland lakes across northern Minnesota, those areas could see some snow accumulation (black outlined areas on map) early next week.

Some of the lakes in northern Minnesota where some lake effect snow showers are possible early next week include Lake of the Woods, Rainy Lake, Red Lake, Leech Lake and Lake Winni.

Tim

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