One more nice late fall day is on the way for Tuesday, and we should see quite a bit more sunshine Tuesday compared to the last few days, but after that the weather goes downhill thanks to a low pressure system which will bring widespread precipitation to the Northland, along with a potential for gale force NE winds near Lake Superior Wednesday night and Thursday.
A strong mid to upper level trough and upper level low moves ashore in the Pacific northwest Tuesday morning, this system is then forecast to dig SE into the Rockies and Northern Plains on Wednesday, reaching the upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Thursday. This trough will reach maximum intensity (blue colors on animation below) Thursday and Friday.
12z European ensemble model 500mb forecast valid 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM Saturday.
Here’s my preliminary snowfall forecast for mid to late week, keep in mind the totals and gradients shown on the map below could shift around some over the next few days.
- Highest amounts of 5-7″ or more along the Higher Terrain along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
- A general 2-5″ of snow for much of north-central and northeast Minnesota, including for International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Walker, Cass Lake, Hibbing, Cook, Crane Lake and Ely.
- A trace to 1″ of snow farther south, including for Brainerd, Aitkin, Cloquet, Duluth, Two Harbors, Silver Bay and Grand Marais.
Note: The immediate shoreline area along the North Shore of Lake Superior may see little to no snow accumulation with this system.
Widespread half inch to an inch or more of precipitation is possible across the Northland from Wednesday evening through Friday.
Precipitation spreads NE into the Northland Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening with precipitation continuing into Thursday morning, and likely beyond that time in parts of the area.
Note: Rain is expected to begin in Duluth and Superior between 6 PM-10 PM Wednesday.
12z European model precipitation type simulated radar forecast valid 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday.
Rain in green
Snow in blue
Mixed precipitation types in pink
…Strong Winds Possible near Lake Superior…
As is often the case with these November storms, there is a chance we could see strong NE winds develop near Lake Superior from Wednesday night into Thursday evening, with wind gusts of 20-35 mph or greater possible during that time period.
Note: There is still some uncertainty, however, on the eventual track of a surface low which will play a role with wind directions and wind speeds, but the models appear to be coming into somewhat better agreement showing the potential for a period of strong, potentially gale force NE winds along the North Shore of Lake Superior, possibly as far south as the Twin Ports Wednesday night into Thursday evening.
Shown below is the 12z European model wind gust forecast valid from Wednesday night through Thursday evening.