A strong November storm will affect much of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest for Wednesday through Friday, this system will produce rain, wind, and for some areas the first significant snowfall of the season — Winter Weather headlines will probably be needed for some parts of northern Minnesota where several inches of snow are possible late Wednesday night into Friday.
Widespread precipitation totals of an inch or more are possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday evening through Friday.
A prolonged period of easterly winds coming off Lake Superior may lead to lake enhanced precipitation along the North Shore of Lake Superior Wednesday night into Thursday. Some locations along the North Shore (NE of Duluth) could see upwards of 2″ of precipitation by Friday afternoon. Most of this precipitation will fall as rain near the immediate shore, but a rain/snow mix, turning to all snow at times is possible for the higher terrain along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Note: Even through precipitation totals look impressive with this system, flooding is not expected for areas that get mostly rain, this is due to the lingering drought across the area.
Wednesday morning looks dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but some rain is possible in far northern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon, but the main slug of moisture associated with our system spreads SW-NE across the Northland Wednesday evening/overnight, with widespread precipitation expected to continue on Thursday, but a dry slot is forecast to lift north which will cause precipitation to diminish in most of the Northland Thursday afternoon-evening, this will be followed by some wrap around light snow or mixed rain-snow late Thursday night into Friday.
For Duluth and Superior: Dry during the day Wednesday. Rain moves in Wednesday evening ~6 PM to 10 PM time frame. Rain continues Thursday but diminishes Thursday afternoon-evening. Some light snow or a rain-snow mix Thursday night into Friday.
A powerful upper level low over British Columbia and Washington late this afternoon will dig SE into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest through Thursday, this system will then exit slowly off to the east on Friday.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Tuesday afternoon, November 9, 2021.
Greatest chances for 2″+ snow amounts still look to be west and north of Duluth and Superior late this week, so for those wanting a big winter storm (dump of snow) in the Twin Ports this isn’t the storm that will produce such a thing.
I made some adjustments to my snowfall forecast.
Generally speaking we’re looking at 1 to 5 inches of snow from north-central Minnesota to the Arrowhead, with some potential for >5″ of snow in northern Minnesota, including for the International Falls, Bigfork, Orr and Crane Lake areas.
Snowfall amounts taper off to a trace to 3 inches farther south, although I’m still leaning more toward a trace to an inch of snow for Duluth and Superior (highest amounts on top of the hill), and there continues to be a chance that locations below the hill in the Twin Ports see little to no snow and mostly rain with this system.
Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) shows a potential for Moderate (orange) to Minor (yellow) impacts due to winter weather across portions of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota Wednesday night and Thursday.
Gale force winds out of the east are possible on western Lake Superior, especially northeast of Silver Bay for Wednesday night into Thursday. Gale force winds are not expected in Duluth or Superior with this system.
Winds of 25-35 mph with stronger gusts are possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior (black outlined area on map) Wednesday night into Thursday.
Note: A period of gusty east winds (15-30 mph) are also expected in the Twin Ports Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning, but winds are expected to quickly diminish on Thursday as an area of low pressure moves near or over the area.