4:56 PM Sunday, December 5, 2021.
Wind, areas of blowing snow and falling temperatures will become the main weather issues in our area through Monday as snow begins to taper off early Monday morning, except in the snowbelt region of northwest Wisconsin (portions of Ashland and Iron Counties) where lake effect snow is expected on Monday.
3.0″ of snow officially at the Duluth Airport thru 4 PM today, so there’s no doubt that southward shift in the heaviest snow band which the models were indicating yesterday for today’s storm didn’t verify, but we’re not done with the snow yet in the Twin Ports, with a few more inches of accumulation possible tonight, so we may still reach the low end of that 6-9″ storm total, will see what happens. Also, snow to liquid ratios in Duluth today are nowhere near what the models were showing. SLR’s per model data were supposed to be in that 13:1 to 15:1 range, but instead we’ve seen SLR’s of only 7.3:1 in Duluth so far today.
QPF of 0.41″ fluffed up to only 3.0″ of snow in Duluth through 4 PM today, but if the SLR was as high as what the models were showing them to be, the 0.41″ QPF would’ve led to ~6″ of snow today.
Additional snowfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are possible tonight along the North Shore of Lake Superior and over the Arrowhead with another 1 to 4 inches of snow possible across the rest of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, except along the South Shore where a period of lake effect snow is likely on Monday leading to an additional 4-6+” of accumulation for parts of Ashland and Iron County.
Note: Additional snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible in Duluth and Superior tonight, this is on top of the few inches of snow we picked up earlier today. There has also been some snow pellets and freezing drizzle in the Twin Ports this afternoon with some minor ice accumulations.
Snow continues tonight but will begin to diminish from NW-SE later this evening and during the overnight, some sun returns on Monday.
18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending 6 PM Monday.
Snow in blue colors.
NWS hazards map as of 4:10 PM Sunday, December 5, 2021.
Red – Blizzard Warning
Pink – Winter Storm Warning
Purple – Winter Weather Advisory
These winter weather headlines remain in effect through early Monday morning.
An area of low pressure has moved into central Minnesota late this afternoon, this low will continue to move quickly to the ENE tonight as it reaches eastern Lake Superior by daybreak Monday.
The strongest lift and most of the snow will continue to be found north of the storm track (outlined in black) tonight, with snow gradually diminishing from NW-SE early Monday morning as the low and stronger lift exits the Northland.
Easterly winds early this evening will shift to the northwest during the night tonight with wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph expected in the Northland, with even stronger wind gusts (>45 mph) possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Blustery NW winds will continue through the day on Monday (strongest winds thru about mid-afternoon). Winds are forecast to diminish Monday night.
Temperatures at Midnight tonight are forecast to range from around 20 to the upper 20s, but temperatures will be falling as arctic air rushes in on Monday, with temperatures by Noon forecast to range from the single digits below to single digits above zero in the Northland.
Low temperatures Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the single digits and teens below zero in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with a few -20s possible in the typical cold spots in northern Minnesota.