Bitterly cold tonight; still cold Thursday and Friday with some snow possible Friday morning and again on Saturday; Warmer weather next week

6:20 PM Wednesday, February 2, 2022

Last night was cold and tonight will be even colder with lows tonight ranging from around -15 to -35 degrees in the Northland. Subzero low temperatures look to continue right through this weekend, although the coldest night should be tonight.

Highs Thursday will only be in the single digits below to single digits above zero, but sunshine should be abundant once again. Friday’s highs are forecast to be in the single digits to around 10 above zero, but on Saturday it looks like will see high temps get into the teens and 20s to possibly as warm as 30 degrees over far southern areas, from Brainerd to Siren.

Snow chances return Friday morning as a weak system moves through but with a very cold air mass still in place this should help keep snow totals to an inch or less.

Here’s the 18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM Friday (snow in blue colors)

Snow begins in Duluth around 2 AM to 4 AM Friday, snow ends around 8 AM to 10 AM Friday (timing may change in future forecasts) <1″ of total snow accumulation the way it looks now.

A more organized clipper low passes through the area Saturday and this one may bring a few inches of snow to far northern Minnesota (near the Ontario border) white outlined area on map, with <1″ of snow expected for the rest of the Northland on Saturday.

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  • WIND CHILL WARNING in effect through Thursday morning for far northern Minnesota, Arrowhead and North Shore including the cities of International Falls, Big Falls, Crane Lake, Ely, Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay and Grand Marais. Wind chills as low as 45 below zero.
  • WIND CHILL ADVISORY in effect through mid-morning Thursday for the rest of the Northland including the cities of Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Superior, Bayfield, Washburn, Ashland, Hurley, Grantsburg, Danbury, Siren, Minong, Spooner, Shell Lake, Hayward and Winter. Wind chills as low as 35 below to 40 below zero.

A widespread arctic air mass covered much of Canada, Northern Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes today with 850mb temperatures close to -40C near an upper low over Hudson Bay Canada to -25C across northern Minnesota.

Not a whole lot of change in this cold air mass is expected through Friday, but we do get a brief push of warmer air for Saturday as a clipper system passes over northern Minnesota or slightly farther north.

Still seeing a lot of open water over Lake Superior as evident by the widespread lake clouds moving from NW to SE across the lake today.

~20% of Lake Superior was covered by ice as of February 1, 2022, normal for early February is ~25% ice coverage.

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Warmer times next week.

We have a chance for near or above freezing high temperatures (possibly as warm as 40 degrees) on a few days next week in Duluth with the greatest chances coming February 8-11 the way it looks now.

Temperature anomaly forecast valid February 7-12, 2022.

Above average temps in orange, red and white colors.
Below average temps in blue and green colors.

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A major and widespread winter storm continues through early Friday from the southern Plains to the Midwest, Ohio Valley and into parts of the northeast U.S.

Abundant moisture lifting N-NE into arctic air will lead to additional rounds of heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain through early Friday (magenta outlined area on map)

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday, February 2, 2022.

One word to describe this headline map would be epic — Winter showing up in a big way with widespread winter weather alerts in effect.

Texas is showing off big time today with temperatures in the mid 80s at Beaumont, TX and in the teens with subzero wind chills in the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon.

Wintry precipitation (snow, sleet and freezing rain) continues to fall from west/north Texas into Oklahoma late today.

Tim

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