5:55 PM Monday, February 7, 2022
Looks like will finally see temperatures climb above the freezing mark in much of the Northland Tuesday afternoon-early Tuesday evening with some locales in our area possibly as warm as the mid to upper 30s, but this kind of warmth won’t stick around very long with a cooler air mass moving back in for Wednesday and Thursday, not arctic air by any means, but it will be cooler (more seasonable for this time of year)
We’re looking at another shot of warmth Thursday night/early Friday with temperatures possibly climbing back above the freezing mark once again in parts of the Northland, but after that it does look like will see a brief return to arctic air for this weekend.
For Duluth — Tuesday, February 8th will likely be the first time since January 18th with a temperature at or above freezing (high on that day was 33 F)
A strong area of low pressure and 500mb trough will dig SE out of Manitoba on Tuesday with the surface low passing N/NE of our area. This system will bring some snow to parts the Northland Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
Here’s a look at the 500mb forecast from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM Wednesday.
A strong mid/upper-level area of low pressure digs SE out of central Manitoba and reaches west-central portions of Lake Superior by Wednesday morning.
Much of the day Tuesday looks mainly dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin but some snow moves into northern Minnesota Tuesday evening, then spreads farther south/east Tuesday night. Areas of snow lingers into the day on Wednesday.
European computer model simulated radar forecast valid 12 PM Tuesday to 12 PM Wednesday (snow in blue colors)
Much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin has a chance to pick up 1 to 3 inches of snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday with the higher amounts favoring areas north of Duluth, and also east of Duluth in parts of northwest Wisconsin where some lake effect snow is also likely on Wednesday along the South Shore of Lake Superior.
For Duluth — An inch or less of snow is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.
LATE WEEK CLIPPER
An even stronger clipper system is expected to affect the Northland in the Thursday afternoon-Friday morning time frame, but much like the system on Tuesday the track of the low for late this week is also north/east of our area which does two things — 1 it cuts down on how much precipitation we see and the duration of said precipitation, and 2 a surge of warm air will probably shift east into parts of the Northland Thursday night which may cause the snow to mix with or change to a brief period of freezing rain or even just rain.
Timing of this late week clipper looks to be from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning for when we may see some precipitation in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with snow arriving in Duluth after 4 PM Thursday and ending around 11 PM Thursday the way it looks now.
Snow in blue, rain in green, mixed precipitation types in orange and pink on the animation below.
European model forecast valid 12 PM Thursday to Midnight Thursday.
Probabilities for getting over 3″ of snow continue to look highest in northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead and also over parts of northwest Wisconsin (white outlined areas) for the clipper late this week.
Snow amounts in Duluth currently look to be in that 1-2″ range Thursday evening.
Thanks for reading!
Tim