Snow chances early next week

6:01 PM Friday, February 18, 2022

Early next week is still looking quite snowy over portions of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, but where that main band of snow sets up is uncertain, although at the moment it appears this band of snow which may include amounts of 6 inches or more will be centered from central Minnesota into north-central Wisconsin (south of Duluth) but it’s possible we could see this band shift slightly farther north or farther south through this weekend.

The setup for early next week features a strong temperature gradient with widespread arctic air from the Northern Plains into Canada, while spring like warmth covers the southern U.S. An area of low pressure will likely track ENE along this temperature gradient early to mid-next week, but this low looks like it will remain well south of the upper Midwest, but favorable lift and enough moisture pushing north into an arctic air mass may lead to a rather widespread area of light to moderate snow which begins early Monday while lasting possibly into early Wednesday as we may see a few different waves of snow impact parts of the region. So, although this doesn’t look like your classic winter storm where it may snow heavily for 12 hours accompanied by strong winds and blowing snow, this system for early next week does have potential to produce several inches of snow due to the duration of the expected snow.

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It does look like will get some snow in Duluth Monday and possibly lingering into Tuesday, but at the moment the chances for getting significant accumulations of 6″ or more are pretty low.

Early next week is also looking pretty windy in Duluth with northeasterly winds possibly gusting over 20 mph on Monday and perhaps continuing into Tuesday as well. Patchy blowing snow is possible early next week, and there may also be some lake effect or lake enhanced snow near Lake Superior early next week since there should be plenty of cold air in place, it will just come down to wind direction to who sees this lake effect or lake enhanced snow.

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Here’s the 20-member 12z GEFS ensemble model snowfall forecast (10:1 ratio) through 6 PM Wednesday, February 23, 2022.

Purple colors on the images below represent 6 inches or more of snow.

As you can see there are a few members which have that 6+” snow band farther north impacting a larger portion of the Northland.

Euro ensemble model (12z run) is in fairly good agreement with the GEFS model on where the highest chances are for seeing 6+” of snow early next week.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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