Warm on Friday; Some rain and a few t-storms at times Friday night through the weekend; Dry/Pleasant weather early next week; Drought Update

5:57 PM Thursday, August 4, 2022

Soil moisture conditions currently range from dry to very dry across southern portions of the Northland, with parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin running very dry, with soil moisture of just 2% to 10%, while soil conditions are running on the wet side across parts of northern Minnesota.

Total Rainfall and Departure from Normal since June 1, 2022

International Falls, MN
Total 9.05″
Departure +0.96″ above normal
+5.99″ more rain this summer vs. last summer.

Duluth, MN
Total 8.02″
Departure -0.74″ below normal
+3.48″ more rain this summer vs. last summer.

St. Cloud, MN
Total 7.71″
Departure -0.11″ below normal
+4.25″ more rain this summer vs. last summer.

Eau Claire, WI
Total 4.11″
Departure -4.88″ below normal
-4.97″ less rain this summer vs. last summer.

Twin Cities, MN
Total 2.47″
Departure -6.73″ below normal
-0.46″ less rain this summer vs. last summer.
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4-week (August 2, 2022, compared to July 5, 2022) Drought Monitor Class Change shows worsening drought conditions stretching from parts of south-central to eastern Minnesota into parts of northern Wisconsin.

Drought continues to expand in parts of Minnesota.

4% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 1% last week.

13% of the state is in Moderate Drought, up from around 7% last week.

34% of the state is Abnormally Dry, up from 30% last week.

Note: The hardest hit areas impacted by drought are currently centered over the Twin Cities Metro area, and adjacent portions of south-central Minnesota.

Pretty much the entire northern half of Wisconsin is in some sort of drought.

1% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 0% last week.

16% of the state is in Moderate Drought, up from 7% last week.

48% of the state is Abnormally Dry, up from 45% last week.

Not a whole lot of change in drought conditions across the Midwest this week.

2% of the Midwest is in Extreme Drought, unchanged from last week.

7% of the Midwest is in Severe Drought, up from 6% last week.

18% of the Midwest is in Moderate Drought, up from 15% last week.

38% of the Midwest is Abnormally Dry, down from 41% last week.

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Wet weather is likely at times this weekend.

-A cold front will be moving ESE across the Northland Friday evening through the day Saturday. Moisture, lift, and some instability will be present along and ahead of this front on Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across north-central Minnesota late Friday afternoon or Friday evening, with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increasing farther south/east into northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late Friday night through Saturday.

-The potential for severe thunderstorms remains very low with this front on Friday, but locally heavy rainfall is possible as there will be abundant moisture in place consisting of precipitable water values of 1.50″ to around 2.00″!

The setup this weekend, particularly in the Saturday night to Sunday time frame will resemble a setup we sometimes see in winter where we have a low-pressure system taking shape south of the Northland while high pressure sets up to the north across central Canada — The potential for a higher impact heavy rain/flash flood event is there Saturday and Sunday, especially from south-central Minnesota into central and northern Wisconsin as multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected in those areas.

Here in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin it does look like will get some more showers at times Saturday night and Sunday, but the heavier rain looks to be more focused farther to the south.

Sunday does have a chance to be a cool late summer day, however, with highs only in the 50s and 60s in the Northland.

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A look at the NWS Blend of Models total rainfall through this weekend.

NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 1 PM Friday to 7 PM Saturday.

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Another brief spike in temperatures is likely Friday with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but this will be short lived once again as a cooler air mass moves in this weekend before temperatures rebound back toward normal early next week.

To go along with the warmer temps on Friday, humidity will increase just a bit with dew point temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to middle 60s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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