4:57 PM Wednesday, August 31, 2022
A prolonged period of dry or mostly dry weather is expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin over the next 7+ days.
Our current warm spell will continue Thursday with highs mainly in the middle 80s across the Northland, but a few locations may see temperatures climb into the upper 80s, that’s pretty warm for the 1st of September, but still shy of the record highs on September 1st, although Hibbing’s record high of 87 on September 1st may be in jeopardy of being tied on Thursday.
Warm temperatures continue in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday with highs in the 80s, but a cooling trend begins across northern Minnesota with highs Friday in the 70s.
A more pronounced cooling trend occurs on Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to around 70, but after that it looks like will be turning warmer again for next week.
Note: Duluth recorded another 80-degree day today, Wednesday, August 31. This brings our monthly total to 5 days with a high of at least 80 (normal in August is 8 days). Will finish the summer of 2022 with 23 days with a high of 80 or warmer at Duluth (normal in a summer is 25 days) And this summer saw far fewer 80-degree days compared to last summer which had 46 days at or above 80 in Duluth.
The only chance for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms through late next week occurs on Friday (September 2), and that chance is mainly for northwest Wisconsin.
We may see a line or a broken line of showers and thunderstorms fire up late Friday afternoon-early Friday evening from southern Minnesota into west-central and northeast Wisconsin into western upper Michigan as a cold front moves SE across the region.
There looks to be ample instability for convection ahead of this front on Friday with computer models showing CAPE >2000 J/kg along with steep mid-level lapse rates, but capping may be an issue with 700mb temperatures around +10C, but this cap may weaken enough to allow the development of some storms late Friday mainly in the area outlined in red.
Note: These rain chances on Friday will remain south/east of Duluth.
Here’s the NAM 3km model radar forecast valid at 7 PM Friday.
A brief bout of mugginess is expected on Friday from northeast and eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with dew points in the 60s, but this won’t last long as a much drier air mass pushes south out of northern Minnesota this weekend.
Precipitation anomaly through next Friday morning, September 9, 2022.
A near zonal or west to east flow is expected in the Northland for next week with a trough to the south-southeast, and a ridge to the southwest.
Temperatures are forecast to be above normal next week in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with a chance for at least another 80-degree day, and possibly multiple 80-degree days for the middle to end of next week.
Thanks for reading!
Tim