Cool temperatures with some rain at times Friday-Saturday; Update on Hurricane Fiona; Drought update

5:19 PM Thursday, September 22, 2022

*Another cool night ahead in the Northland with areas of frost especially over eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin including for the Ashland and Hurley areas.

*Frost/freeze potential will return to much of the Northland early next week (September 26-28 time frame)

*Cloud cover will be on the increase tonight into Friday morning with generally mostly cloudy skies expected during the day Friday and on Saturday too.

*Some rain is likely in the Northland Friday and Saturday but with the cool air mass in place, instability will be limited so we shouldn’t see much if any thunderstorm activity which will reduce the threat for heavy rainfall with this system, instead we’re looking at mostly light rainfall rates.

*Rain chances look greatest Friday evening into early Saturday morning, but there are chances for showers during the day Friday, and also on Saturday.

*Sunday is looking like the nicer day of the weekend, but even on Sunday there are chances for a few showers, but we should also see a little more sun on Sunday compared to Saturday.

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The system which will affect the Northland over the next few days looks pretty strong today as it impacts the Rockies.

Water vapor loop from Thursday, September 22, 2022.

18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.

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Drought Update – September 20, 2022

Drought is worsening over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin with the worse conditions continuing to be centered on the Twin Cities Metro area.

Here in the Northland, there’s no doubt that we’re doing a lot better in terms on the amount of precipitation we’ve had this year vs. last year, this is especially true in northern Minnesota, while parts of east-central Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin (South Shore area) have been running significantly drier compared to northern Minnesota.

4% of Minnesota is in Severe Drought, up from 1% last week.

14% of Minnesota is in Moderate Drought, up from 10% last week.

41% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry, up from 39% last week.

2% of Wisconsin is in Severe Drought, up from 0.70% last week.

9% of Wisconsin is in Moderate Drought, up from 6% last week.

25% of Wisconsin is Abnormally Dry, up from 15% last week.

Soil Moisture Conditions as of September 22, 2022.

Red, orange and yellow areas – Dry

Green and Blue areas – Wet

Precipitation Totals and Departure from Normal for 2022 (thru 4 PM September 22, 2022)

International Falls, MN: 31.53″
Departure: +11.49″ above normal

St. Cloud, MN: 27.36″
Departure: +4.46″ above normal

Duluth, MN: 25.67″
Departure: +1.72″ above normal

Eau Claire, WI: 24.95″
Departure: -1.49″ below normal

Minnesota/St. Paul, MN: 18.42″
Departure: -7.02″ below normal

Low Temperature Reports from Thursday morning, September 22, 2022
Source: NWS Duluth, MN

2 E Celina, MN: 32 F
2 S Brimson, MN: 34 F
Embarrass, MN: 34 F
Aurora, MN: 34 F
Eveleth, MN: 34 F
3 E Wright, MN: 34 F
Hayward, WI: 35 F
Littlefork, MN: 36 F
Two Harbors, MN: 36 F
Solon Springs, WI: 36 F
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 37 F
Cook, MN: 37 F
Ely, MN: 37 F
Eveleth-Virginia Airport: 37 F
2 W Drummond, WI: 37 F
Siren, WI: 38 F
Ashland, WI: 38 F
Esko, MN: 38 F
International Falls, MN: 38 F
Minong, WI: 39 F
Cloquet, MN: 39 F
Grand Marais Airport: 39 F
Superior Airport: 39 F
Duluth Airport: 40 F

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HURRICANE FIONA

Latest update from the National Hurricane Center 2 PM ET/1 PM CT
Thursday, September 22, 2022

Location: About 345 miles west-southwest of Bermuda. About 1085 miles south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Maximum sustained winds: 130 mph (category 4 hurricane)

Fiona is moving north-northeast at 16 mph and has a minimum central pressure of 936mb/27.64 inches.

The center of Fiona will pass just west of Bermuda tonight, approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

Central pressure of Hurricane Fiona is forecast to deepen from around 935mb this evening, to possibly as low as 920mb as it approaches Nova Scotia Friday night, that is an incredibly strong system!

500mb height anomalies with Hurricane Fiona could drop as low as -550 meters, some -5 sigma below normal. This really is an anomalous event!

Here’s a few different satellite loops of Hurricane Fiona — Loop time on all three ends 3:42 PM CT, Thursday, September 22, 2022.

Infrared imagery

Visible imagery

True Color imagery

A strong upper-level trough over the northeast U.S. will move east and will phase with Hurricane Fiona as it lifts N-NE over the next few days, fascinating!

Here’s an animation showing the two systems phasing over the next few days.

Forecast ends 7 AM Sunday, September 25, 2022.

Wave height forecast through 7 AM Sunday per European model.

Wave heights of 30 to 50 feet with maximum wave heights of 70 to 90 feet are forecast across the Atlantic over the next few days associated with Hurricane Fiona.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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