3:33 PM Sunday, November 13, 2022
It’ll be a wintry week across the Northland thanks to a persistent upper-level trough which will cover areas from central Canada to the upper Midwest.
Will see a couple disturbances drop SE through the area this week but with no gulf connection we’re not looking at any major winter storms impacting our area, but there will be some accumulating snow on a few days in the week ahead so expect at least some minor travel impacts Monday and Tuesday, and possibly again later this week.
A more significant snowfall with greater impacts to travel is likely Monday through early Wednesday along the North Shore of Lake Superior in northeast Minnesota due to an east wind blowing across Lake Superior which will cause a long duration lake enhanced snow event for areas especially northeast of Duluth, but there may even be some lake enhanced snow at times as far south as Duluth depending on how the low-level winds setup.
Lake effect snow develops later tonight along the North Shore of Lake Superior as winds become east-southeast.
Synoptic snow from an approaching low-pressure system will overspread much of the Northland from west to east Monday morning.
Note: Snow is forecast to begin in Duluth around 4-7 AM Monday.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 6 AM Tuesday.
Snow (blue)
Here’s my snowfall forecast thru 6 AM Wednesday.
A few things to keep in mind is that this will be a longer duration snow event, and that snowfall intensities will mostly be on the light side with the exception of the North Shore of Lake Superior where heavier snowfall rates are expected at times from Monday through early Wednesday.
Upper-level trough over central Canada will send pieces of energy SE through the upper Midwest this week.
It’s cold now and it looks like it will turn even colder later this week as an early season arctic air mass settles south into the upper Midwest — We could see highs only in the teens to around 20 in much of the Northland on Friday and continuing through next weekend, with overnight lows during this same time period in the single digits below to single digits above zero, so it does look like we could see the first subzero temperatures of the season in some parts of the Northland by next weekend.
Parts of the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin into upper Michigan has seen quite a bit of lake effect snow this weekend with snow totals of nearly 14″ at Gile, WI (Iron County), to 9″ near Ironwood, MI.
We’ve seen much warmer than average temperatures so far this month across the eastern half of the U.S., while the western half of the U.S. has been colder than average.
Temperatures have turned much colder over the past few days, but with how warm the first week of November was, this has kept the temperature anomaly on the + side of things across the eastern U.S. so far this month.
| Average Temperature and Departure from Normal November 1-12, 2022 Ashland, WI Average Temperature: 43.0 degrees Departure: +6.7 degrees above average Brainerd, MN Average Temperature: 40.3 degrees Departure: +5.1 degrees above average Duluth, MN Average Temperature: 39.6 degrees Departure: +5.4 degrees above average Hibbing, MN Average Temperature: 35.7 degrees Departure: +5.5 degrees above average International Falls, MN Average Temperature: 34.7 degrees Departure: +3.7 degrees above average |
Total Precipitation and Departure from Normal for November 1-12, 2022
Ashland, WI: 3.64″; +2.95″ above normal
Duluth, MN: 2.82″; +1.96″ above normal
Hibbing, MN: 1.89″; +1.37″ above normal
Brainerd, MN: 1.68″; +1.21″ above normal
International Falls, MN: 0.95″; +0.29″ above normal
Percent of Normal Precipitation for November 1-12, 2022
Ashland, WI: 527% of normal
Hibbing, MN: 363% of normal
Brainerd, MN: 357% of normal
Duluth, MN: 328% of normal
International Falls, MN: 144% of normal
Fall 2022 ranks as a top 10 driest fall on record in parts of southern Minnesota and northern Iowa and elsewhere in the darker brown colored areas on the image below.
| Total Precipitation and Departure from Normal for fall 2022 September 1-November 11, 2022 Duluth, MN Total: 6.34″ Departure: -0.91″ below normal Hibbing, MN Total: 5.28″ Departure: -0.65″ below normal Superior, WI Total: 4.49″ Departure: -2.95″ below normal Brainerd, MN Total: 4.17″ Departure: -1.27″ below normal International Falls, MN Total: 4.02″ Departure: -1.86″ below normal |
Thanks for reading!
Tim