4:57 PM Monday, November 14, 2022
-Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories remain in effect for the North Shore and Arrowhead thru 6 PM Tuesday.
-Occasional light snow with mostly minor travel impacts will continue in most of the Northland thru Wednesday morning, while heavier snowfall along with more significant snow accumulations leads to greater travel impacts along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
-High temperatures trend slightly warmer Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
-Arctic air mass arrives late in the week with highs only in the teens to lower 20s Friday through Sunday with overnight lows in the single digits below to single digits above zero.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast thru 6 AM Wednesday.
Snow (blue)
A favorable setup for lake enhanced snowfall will remain in place thru Tuesday evening along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
| Snowfall Reports from Monday, November 14, 2022 Source: NWS Duluth, MN Little Marais, MN: 5.0″ 4 W Grand Marais, MN: 4.5″ Finland, MN: 3.0″ 3 E Rice Lake, MN: 3.0″ 3 WSW Grand Marais, MN: 2.5″ Duluth, MN (NWS) 2.0″ — Total thru 4 PM Monday 4 E Palisade, MN: 1.9″ 7 WSW Pine River, MN: 1.8″ 1 N Cloquet, MN: 1.6″ 3 NW Duluth, MN: 1.0″ International Falls, MN: 0.9″ |
No changes needed to my snowfall forecast.
Greatest amounts of snow of up to a foot or more will be focused along the North Shore of Lake Superior, especially northeast of Silver Bay.
1 to 3 inches of snow for Duluth thru Wednesday morning with greater amounts possible especially on the north side of Duluth.
It doesn’t look like the winds will setup favorably enough for much in the way of lake enhanced snowfall in most of the Twin Ports area, with the possible exception being the northern portion of Duluth.
Winds will remain out of the ESE thru Tuesday which favors areas slightly north of Duluth for most of the lake enhancement, however, winds could shift to a more favorable ENE direction for a few hours Tuesday afternoon/evening which could help shift some of the heavier lake effect snow bands further south into Duluth, but even if that did occur, I still don’t think we’d end up with more than 3″ of snow, but with the possible exception being the north part of Duluth which could see more than 3″ of snow for a total by Wednesday morning.
Moderate to Major Winter Storm Impacts are expected along the North Shore (orange and red areas on the map) thru Wednesday morning.
A broad upper-level trough along with a surface trough will remain over the upper Midwest while it shifts slowly south/east thru Wednesday — This system will keep the weather on the unsettled side in our area with light snow chances into midweek, but with no gulf moisture connection and generally weak lift we’re not looking at any widespread heavy snowfall outside of the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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