5:34 PM Monday, December 5, 2022
We’ve got two snow events on the way through Wednesday which should put down a few inches of snow in much of the Northland.
The first snow event arrives Tuesday morning and continues through the afternoon, but this snow will target mostly northern Minnesota, North Shore and Arrowhead with little to no snow expected for eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday. Note: There will be a sharp southern edge to the snow on Tuesday which looks to setup pretty much right over or near Duluth.
A second snow event is possible on Wednesday from around 5 AM to Noon, but this one may setup a little further south compared to Tuesday’s, with all of northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota in the zone for possible snow on Wednesday.
For Duluth – A few lake effect snow showers are possible between 6 AM-8 AM Tuesday, followed by some system snow from around 9 AM to 2 PM Tuesday. Another round of snow is possible Wednesday from around 5 AM to Noon.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 6 AM to 6 PM Tuesday (snow in blue)
Here’s my snowfall forecast for Tuesday.
Snowfall ratios look pretty high per model guidance for Tuesday and could be in that 15:1 to 22:1 range so the snow that falls should be on the fluffy side, and it’s possible that we could get an isolated 3″ total somewhere in northern Minnesota due to the fluffy nature of the snow on Tuesday.
Highest snow amounts still look to setup north of Duluth, although there has been a slight southward shift in Tuesday’s snow.
Around 1″ of snow is possible in Duluth on Tuesday.
Note – Snowfall amounts with Wednesday’s system look pretty similar to what is forecast to fall on Tuesday, but the only difference is that the snow looks to be a little further south compared to Tuesday.
An active weather pattern is in place as several low-pressure systems move east out of the western U.S.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Monday, December 5, 2022.
One thing which is fueling this active pattern is this temperature contrast, from arctic air across Canada with temperatures in the -10s and -20s this afternoon to the 70s and even a few 80s over parts of the Southern Plains.
The Northland will be on the southern edge of an arctic air mass through Wednesday, but the coldest temperatures will remain farther to the N/NW.
Bitterly cold temperatures will be found over North Dakota, northwest Minnesota into Manitoba and Ontario over the next few days, with the coldest temperatures forecast for Wednesday morning when we could see widespread -30s and even a few -40s in parts of southern Manitoba, with -20s into far northwest Minnesota, while all of this is going on, temperatures in Kentucky will be in the 60s early Wednesday morning.
We’re still looking at milder temperatures returning to the Northland later this week into early next week, but there continues to be signs showing up in model guidance for much colder temperatures to return mid to late next week.
EPS model temperature anomaly for December 11-16, 2022.
GEFS model temperature anomaly trend for December 11-16, 2022
Blue and Purple – Below average temperatures
Orange and Red – Above average temperatures
Thanks for reading!
Tim