7:16 PM Saturday, December 10, 2022
*Patchy fog, drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue in the Northland tonight, and could return again Monday and Tuesday.
*A few lake effect snow showers are possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior through Monday, but no major accumulation is expected.
*A strong and slow-moving storm could impact the Northland from late Tuesday through Thursday.
Latest on a potential storm for the middle of next week.
An amplified pattern will be in place with a strong ridge northeast of the Great Lakes with strong upper lows/troughs over the Plains and also east of Maine.
With the ridge NE of the Great Lakes this will lead to a slow-moving low-pressure system as it lifts NE out of eastern Colorado on Monday, reaching central Nebraska Tuesday, then this low will weaken while it transfers its energy to a new low which is forecast to develop further SE over the Midwest on Thursday.
Overall, this is a very complex setup, but computer models continue to be in very good agreement in showing significant amounts of precipitation impacting much of the Northland beginning Tuesday evening or overnight, then continuing on Wednesday, with some precipitation expected to linger into Thursday and possibly even into Friday, although precipitation rates do look lighter after Wednesday.
Temperatures through this event will be on the mild side (ranging from the low to mid 30s) so snow that falls will be wet/heavy, also with the warmer air in place, this should lead to lower snow to liquid ratios than we typically see in the Northland. SLR’s with this event look to remain <10:1 which means this snow will contain a lot of moisture.
Occasional mixed precipitation is also expected with this storm especially in northwest Wisconsin and near the immediate shoreline of Lake Superior. This mixture of precipitation could cut into snow amounts in the aforementioned areas.
*Ensemble models continue to show a lot of QPF (precipitation) in Duluth next week.
Here are the totals thru 6 AM Friday, December 16, 2022
GEFS: 1.50″
EPS: 1.10″
CMCE: 0.80″
If all of that was to fall as snow, then we’d be looking at double digit snow totals in Duluth the middle of next week.
*50-member EPS snowfall forecast for Duluth thru 6 AM Friday, December 16, 2022
39/50 (78%) of members show at least 10″ of snow in Duluth.
2/50 (4%) of members show snow totals of 20″ or more in Duluth.
Setup for the middle of next week
Snowfall totals exceeding winter storm warning criteria (7″) is highest in the red areas on the image below.
Note – This forecast is for the 24-hour period ending at 6 AM Wednesday.
Strong northeast winds with gusts of 30 to 40 mph or higher are expected near Lake Superior from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, with gusty NE winds lingering into Thursday (20-30 mph gusts)
These strong winds could cause areas of blowing snow near Lake Superior Tuesday night through Thursday.
European model wind gust forecast 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM Friday.
| More snow in the Northland today Snowfall Reports from Saturday, December 10, 2022 Source: National Weather Service Duluth, MN 4 W Grand Marais, MN: 4.9″ 3 W Lester Park, MN: 4.0″ Silver Bay, MN: 3.0″ 3 W Duluth, MN: 3.0″ Proctor, MN: 3.0″ 5 NW Knife River, MN: 3.0″ Duluth, MN: 2.7″ (Official NWS Total) SLR of 10.4:1 2 SSW Rice Lake, MN: 2.5″ 3 W Bayfield, WI: 2.5″ International Falls, MN: 2.1″ Ely, MN: 2.0″ Winton, MN: 1.7″ 1 NNE Cloquet, MN: 1.6″ |
A few lake effect snow showers are possible at times Sunday into early Monday along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
18z NAM km model radar forecast valid 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM Monday (snow in blue)
Month To Date Snowfall Stats
(Thru 4 PM on Dec. 10, 2022)
Duluth, MN
Total: 6.8″
Normal: 6.0″
Departure: +0.8″ above normal
Percent of Normal Snowfall: 113% of normal
International Falls, MN
Total: 4.2″
Normal: 5.1″
Departure: -0.9″ below normal
Percent of Normal Snowfall: 82% of normal
Note: International Falls needs an additional 0.28″ of precipitation by the end of this month in order for 2022 to tie for the wettest year on record which occurred in 1941 with 34.35″ of precipitation.
Precipitation total at International Falls of 34.07″ thus far in 2022 is running +9.36″ above average, or 177% of normal!
Thanks for reading!
Tim