5:46 PM Thursday, December 22, 2022
-Strong north to northwest winds will produce widespread blowing snow in the Northland over the next few days.
-Wind gusts of 25 to 45 mph will be common in the Northland tonight through Sunday morning, with stronger wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph expected along the North Shore of Lake Superior from Friday through Saturday evening. Note — The strongest winds look to setup northeast of Duluth through this weekend, although we could still see occasional wind gusts to around 50 mph in Duluth from Friday afternoon through Saturday.
-Blizzard conditions are expected along the North Shore and over the Arrowhead of Minnesota, as well as along the South Shore of Lake Superior beginning tonight and lasting through Christmas morning (Sunday)
-Snow loading on trees from the past storm in combination with the high winds may cause tree damage resulting in power outages in cold weather.
-Significant lake effect and lake enhanced snow is likely through Sunday morning along the South Shore of Lake Superior, while some light snow is likely at times over the Arrowhead and North Shore.
-Frigid temperatures and wind chills will linger over the Northland through the weekend.
BLIZZARD WARNING
Blizzard Warning is in effect until 8 AM Sunday for the North Shore including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Isabella and Grand Marais.
Blizzard Warning is in effect from Midnight tonight to 6 PM Saturday for the South Shore including the cities of Port Wing, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley and Gile.
IMPACTS
Travel should be restricted to emergencies only during the blizzard warning. Travel could be impossible at times Friday into Friday night. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.
NAM 3km model wind gust forecast through 1 AM Sunday.
Note — Yellow and brown colors represent wind gusts of 45 to 60+ mph.
This is about as extreme as a pattern can get during the winter.
Pretty much anywhere from the Pacific northwest to the Rockies, upper Midwest, Central Plains, Great Lakes, to the southern/eastern U.S. is under some kind of winter weather alert.
There are also Storm Warnings in effect for much of the Great Lakes over the next few days with maximum wave heights of 22 feet possible on Lake Superior (central/southern portion of the lake)
WIND CHILL ADVISORY
Wind Chill Advisory covers all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin the next few days.
Wind chills as low as 30 to 35 below zero.
Will see some more snow move into far northeast Minnesota and the North Shore on Friday, while heavier snow is expected to develop in northwest Wisconsin (South Shore) on Friday due to gravity wave development on western Lake Superior.
For Duluth — A few flurries are possible on Friday otherwise it looks mainly dry from tonight through Saturday morning.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 6 AM Saturday (snow in blue)
Additional snowfall accumulations through 6 PM Saturday.
UPDATED SNOW STATS FOR DULUTH, MN
Monthly snowfall total for December (thru 4 PM on the 22nd) 43.1 inches
Normal snowfall to date: 13.3 inches
Departure from normal snowfall: +29.8 inches above normal
Percent of normal snowfall to date: 324% of normal
Note — Will need an additional +1.2 inches of snow in Duluth to tie the snowiest December on record which is 44.3 inches set in 1950. Will it happen? Time will tell.
STORM INGREDIENTS
Powerful winter storm continues to develop this afternoon with a few areas of low pressure east of our area, with the main low taking shape over northern Indiana. This area of low pressure will deepen considerably over the next 24 hours with pressures falling from around 1005mb this afternoon to around 968mb by Friday evening — If this forecast verifies then the surface low would deepen about 37 millibars between late this afternoon and Friday afternoon.
Mid and upper-level low continues to dig S/SE across Minnesota this afternoon while a trough takes on a negative tilt across the central Plains.
Powerful jet stream winds >160 knots adding even more fuel to this winter storm.
Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 4:11 PM CT, Thursday, December 22, 2022.
SIBERIAN EXPRESS
Frigid temperatures continued today and expect this cold pattern to continue through the weekend.
Note — We’ve had 8 subzero nights so far this month in Duluth. Average in December is 8.
Snowfall Reports from December 21-22, 2022
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
3 NNE Tofte, MN: 12.0″
2 N Lutsen, MN: 11.0″
1 SSW Grantsburg, WI: 6.0″
Ashland, WI: 5.6″
1 SSW Pine City, MN: 5.6″
1 SW Hayward, WI: 5.5″
1 ENE Mason, WI: 5.5″
7 ENE Sarona, WI: 5.3″
2 N Pillager, MN: 5.3″
3 WSW Bayfield, WI: 5.2″
7 N McGregor, MN: 5.1″
7 SSE Earl, WI: 5.0″
2 WNW Washburn, WI: 5.0″
2 SW Tamarack, MN: 5.0″
3 SW Ashland, WI: 5.0″
Spooner, WI: 5.0″
3 ESE Moose Lake, MN: 4.9″
3 NNW Mahtowa, MN: 4.6″
Gile, WI: 4.5″
1.2 W Solon Springs, WI: 4.3″
Two Harbors, MN: 4.1″
3 ENE Wright, MN: 4.0″
3 WSW Cloquet, MN: 3.9″
4 WNW Two Harbors, MN: 3.8″
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 3.8″
7 WSW Pine River, MN: 3.7″
1 WSW Maple, WI: 3.5″
1 SW Brainerd, MN: 3.5″
7 NW Grand Marais, MN: 3.5″
3 N Amnicon Falls State Park, WI: 3.3″
1 WNW Cass Lake, MN: 3.2″
Wrenshall, MN: 3.1″
8 SE Brainerd, MN: 3.0″
1 S Hibbing, MN: 3.0″
2 ESE Duluth, MN: 3.0″
Duluth, MN: 2.7″ (Official total at the NWS)
1 WSW Lester Park, MN: 2.6″
1 W Grand Rapids, MN: 2.5″
2 S Brimson, MN: 2.4″
Keewatin, MN: 2.1″
Embarrass, MN: 2.0″
3 N Nisswa, MN: 2.0″
1 ENE Superior, WI: 2.0″
2 SSW Ely, MN: 1.9″
Cotton, MN: 1.5″
Cook, MN: 1.4″
WARMING TREND ON THE WAY
A warmer weather pattern is expected next week with a chance for daytime highs to climb toward or even above the freezing mark in much of the Northland mid to late next week, and it also looks like will be done with the subzero temperatures at least for a little while after December 27th.
Here’s the GEFS model temperature anomaly trend valid December 26-31, 2022.
Orange and red colors – Above average temperatures
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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