5:54 PM Thursday, March 9, 2023
Two snow events for the Northland through Sunday.
-The first system with a few inches of snow tonight into Friday morning will affect mainly southern parts of the area, or along and south of the Iron Range and Highway 2 corridor in northeast Minnesota, including all of northwest Wisconsin, while little to no snow is expected in far northern Minnesota into the tip of the Arrowhead.
-Strong northeasterly winds will continue near Lake Superior tonight through Friday morning with wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Some blowing snow will develop tonight and will likely linger into Friday morning due to these gusty winds and the newly fallen snow.
-A break in the snow is likely Friday afternoon through Friday night, in fact will likely see at least some sun break through the clouds Friday afternoon.
-Another period of gusty winds this time more out of the east is possible near Lake Superior for Saturday into early Sunday with a potential for some more blowing snow at that time.
-A second system is forecast to impact the entire Northland in the Saturday-Sunday evening time frame, and this one looks like it will bring widespread snow to the Northland this weekend based on the current storm track in model data.
-Snowfall timing for this weekend — Snow spreads east across the Northland during the day Saturday with the snow beginning in Duluth sometime between mid/late morning and early afternoon Saturday. Snow should then continue into Saturday night and through most of the day Sunday, although a dry slot could affect some parts of the Northland at some point this weekend which would cause a break in the snow.
Snow will continue to gradually develop this evening in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin including in the Twin Ports and along parts of the North Shore of Lake Superior. This snow will diminish from west to east between 8 AM and Noon Friday.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 3 PM Friday.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast through 6 PM Friday (Note — bulk of this snow will fall before Noon Friday)
- Dry air should limit how far north the accumulating snow will get.
- There is still a chance for some lake enhanced snow in Duluth and farther up the North Shore including Two Harbors and Silver Bay which could put snow totals over 3 inches, but I’m just not confident enough on much lake effect snow with this event as 850mb temperatures are marginal (-8 to -10C)
- A somewhat higher chance for some lake enhanced snow for the Bayfield Peninsula in northwest Wisconsin with snow totals of 3 to 5 inches possible by Friday afternoon.
A very active weather pattern as one system moves east across the Midwest with the northern edge of this system affecting the upper Midwest and Great Lakes tonight.
Several more systems are moving into the western U.S. all part of an atmospheric river event.
Meanwhile strong blocking continues over northeast Canada.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Thursday, March 9, 2023 (loop time ends 5:20 PM CT)
The system which is forecast to impact the Northland this weekend comes out of the Pacific northwest (see animation below) with a closed off 500mb low moving ESE through North Dakota and into Minnesota and Wisconsin on Sunday. The system this weekend has clipper characteristics, but at the same time it really isn’t your typical clipper as this one is forecast to move more slowly than most clippers do, plus the mid/upper level-low associated with this system looks pretty strong, so it should have quite a bit of lift to generate some bands of moderate snow as it crosses the Northland this weekend.
The main uncertainty would be what the actual track of the low/upper-low will end up being, and on snow amounts, but at the very least, the odds of getting at least 2-4 inches of snow across the entire Northland is looking pretty good at the moment.
Here’s the Euro ensemble (EPS model) 500mb forecast valid 6 PM Friday to 6 AM Monday.
One thing I’m a little concerned about for the weekend system is that the surface low will be in the process of weakening as it moves out of Montana with pressures rising from around 990mb Friday evening to around 1010mb by Sunday morning, this along with potential dry slot issues could reduce snow totals just a bit.
Here’s my preliminary snowfall forecast for this weekend.
For Duluth: 4 to 7 inches of snow is possible by Sunday evening.
Thanks for reading!
Tim