6:33 PM Sunday, March 12, 2023
- Duluth’s seasonal snowfall total for 2022-2023 is now at 115.9 inches thru 4 PM Sunday. This is +42.5 inches above average to date and is 158% of normal snowfall through March 12th.
- Duluth has had +47 inches more snow this winter compared to what we had by this time last winter.
- 22.6 inches of snow so far this month at Duluth, this is +16.7 inches above average snowfall to date and is 383% of normal snowfall through March 12th. Duluth has already surpassed the average snowfall for the entire month of March (12.8 inches) in just the first 12 days of this month.
- As of 4 PM Sunday, March 12th, Duluth was 19.5 inches away from tying the seasonal snowfall record of 135.4 inches which was set in 1995-96.
We’re finally seeing the surface and upper-level low responsible in bringing the heavy snow to parts of the Northland this weekend start to pull away from the Northland late this afternoon and this trend will continue tonight.
Snow will linger this evening in parts of the Northland with additional snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior due to some lake effect/enhanced snow tonight.
Strong north winds will persist near Lake Superior this evening with wind gusts of 25 to 45 mph, but winds should diminish later tonight. Blowing and drifting snow will continue this evening near Lake Superior. Note: Northeast winds having been gusting as high as 55 mph on Park Point (Sky Harbor Airport) this afternoon.
This storm just doesn’t want to leave. Still seeing cooler/enhanced cloud tops in northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin early this evening which is indicative of some heavier bands of snow as low pressure continues to move towards the SE out of central Wisconsin.
Goes-16 sandwich satellite loop ending 6:16 PM CT, Sunday, March 12, 2023.
Snow should come to an end in Duluth between 10 PM and Midnight tonight.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 12 PM Monday.
Top Ten Snowiest Winters on record at Duluth, Minnesota dating back to 1885.
1: 135.4 inches set in 1995-96
2: 131.8 inches set in 1949-50
3: 131.0 inches set in 2013-14
4: 129.4 inches set in 2012-13
5: 128.2 inches set in 1996-97
6: 121.0 inches set in 1968-69
7: 119.1 inches set in 1988-89
8: 116.9 inches set in 1970-71
9: 115.9 inches set in 2022-23 (thru 4 PM on 3/12)
10: 110.9 inches set in 1964-65
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING PATTERN
The pattern overall continues to look active over the next 6 to 10 days at least with troughing out west while ridging covers the southern and eastern US, this sets up a SW flow across the Plains which opens the door for the possibility for a few systems to move out of the Rockies and into the Great Lakes.
Weather quiets down locally over the next few days, but the next time frame to monitor for potential trouble looks to be from Thursday afternoon through early Saturday morning, this is when we could see a system develop over the Plains, but whether or not this system impacts the Northland is uncertain, and if it does hit us, will it be a major winter storm, or more of a light snowfall event? Stay tuned.
There’s still plenty of time for things to change, but currently northern Wisconsin has the greatest chance for 6 inches or more of snow late this week with the lowest chances across western/northern Minnesota, while the North Shore, far eastern Minnesota including Duluth is in the middle probability range at this time, not the highest but not the lowest either.
GEFS model precipitation type forecast valid at 7 PM Thursday, March 16, 2023.
There’s about 11 out of 20 GEFS model members showing a pretty significant precipitation event affecting the Northland late this week, but some of the members are showing rain, others snow, and there’s a few that aren’t showing a whole lot happening in our area late this week.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Wintry Mix (pink)
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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