6:52 PM Monday, April 3, 2023
A powerful winter/spring storm will impact the Northland Tuesday into Wednesday.
Duluth area: Snow begins Tuesday morning between 6 and 9 AM with some snow continuing during the afternoon. Snow changes to sleet and freezing Tuesday evening/overnight, and this sleet/freezing rain mixture lingers into Wednesday morning before precipitation turns back over to snow showers and flurries Wednesday afternoon/night. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible Tuesday afternoon/night. Total snowfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible in Duluth. Temperatures ranging from around 28 to 31 degrees Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Note — Strong northeast winds gusting 50 to as high as 65 mph could cause some tree and power line damage leading to scattered power outages. The threat for more widespread power outages and tree damage increases especially if we end up getting more significant ice accumulations approaching a quarter of an inch.
I didn’t make any changes to my initial snowfall forecast from Sunday afternoon, but there is still a possibility that I’ll have to tweak things just a bit as this event gets closer, but for now I’m not seeing any major shifts in the computer models that would make me want to change my forecast.
Note — One of these changes would be to lower the snow totals in the Twin Ports, more into that 2 to 4 inch range, but again I’m going to wait until later tonight or tomorrow morning to make a final call on things.
Areas of blowing snow are likely in northern Minnesota and also along the North Shore of Lake Superior Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with occasional whiteout conditions possible.
ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
Freezing rain is expected in parts northeast and east central Minnesota including in Duluth, and in much of northwest Wisconsin. This freezing rain is most likely to occur from late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening through the overnight and into early Wednesday morning. Significant ice accumulations of up to 0.25 inches or more are possible in some parts of the area, with a higher likelihood of ice accumulations ranging from around 0.05 inches to 0.20 inches.
Note — The European model continues to hit the Twin Ports pretty hard with freezing rain Tuesday night with a total ice accumulation of 0.38″ in Duluth.
The EPS model shows a low-end ice total of 0.05 inches in Duluth with a high-end amount of 0.55 inches.
NWS Blend of Models shows between 0.10 to 0.20 inches of ice in Duluth.
HREF model is capped off generally in that 0.10 to 0.25 inch range for ice accumulations in Duluth.
Here’s a look at how much precipitation (liquid equivalent) could fall in the Northland through 7 PM Wednesday per NWS Blend of Models.
Rain falling on top of snow could lead to minor flooding Tuesday night in parts of northwest Wisconsin including the St Croix and Chippewa river basins.
Here’s a look at how much water is in the snowpack as of 6 PM Monday, April 3, 2023.
Snow spreads southwest to northeast across the Northland during the day Tuesday with the snow mixing with and changing to sleet/freezing rain from south to north across east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin during the afternoon, then will see this wintry mix spread farther north into northeast Minnesota Tuesday night.
Snow and a wintry mix continue Wednesday with a changeover to mostly snow by the afternoon. Lingering snow showers are then expected for Wednesday night.
European model radar forecast valid from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Thursday.
Snow (blue)
Mix (orange and pink)
Rain (green)
STRONG WINDS
One thing that has been consistently showing up in the computer models for this storm is very strong winds.
Winds shift to the east/northeast tonight and will remain out of the east/northeast through Wednesday morning.
Winds will increase with gusts of 20 to 35 mph tonight and will increase even further during the day Tuesday. The strongest wind gusts are expected to occur Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning, this is when we could see wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph near Lake Superior including in the Twin Ports.
Winds diminish near Lake Superior including in the Twin Ports mid to late morning on Wednesday, but another round of potentially gusty winds (25-35+ mph) could occur Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, this time from a westerly direction.
HRRR model wind gust forecast valid from 7 PM Monday to 1 PM Wednesday.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
Here are the various winter weather headlines broken down into three groups, these winter weather headlines are in effect from Tuesday into Wednesday.
Here’s a look at our developing storm over the Rockies today via water vapor imagery.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Monday, April 3, 2023 (loop time ends 5:41 PM CT)
An interesting development in the computer models today as the European model which had been the farthest west with the storm track has shifted the track of the low more to the east, with the low now forecast to move from southern Minnesota toward the Duluth area on Wednesday, but even with this farther east storm track that doesn’t change much in terms of getting more snow in the Twin Ports.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
We’re looking at another severe weather event for Tuesday and Tuesday night in a lot of the same areas which were impacted by severe weather this past Friday.
Storm Prediction Center has two MODERATE RISKS (red areas on the severe weather outlook map) out for Tuesday which is a level 4 out of 5.
Hatched areas=A potential for strong tornadoes EF2 – EF5 within 25 miles of a point.
Severe risk on Tuesday extends north into southern Wisconsin, similar to last Friday.
A few tornadoes are possible on Tuesday in southern Wisconsin.
Tim
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