5:55 PM Friday, September 8, 2023
A trough of low pressure currently over the Northern Rockies will be moving east into the upper Midwest through Saturday. This system isn’t very strong, but it does have some lift with it which should be enough to produce some rain showers in parts of the Northland late tonight through Saturday evening.
Computer models continue to be in disagreement on what part/s of the Northland see the most rain with this system, but timing wise looks to be from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening for the potential for somewhat more widespread rain coverage wherever that main band of rain sets up which probably won’t be known until sometime Saturday morning.
A few showers are also possible late tonight through Saturday morning mainly across north central into northeast Minnesota.
The pattern is forecast to undergo some amplification for Sunday and Monday as a trough digs S/SE out of Ontario with NW flow sharpening up a bit across the upper Midwest. A few showers remain possible Sunday and Monday due to the troughing over the area, and we could even see a little lake effect rain as well near Lake Superior with winds out of the N/NE along with 850mb temperatures of around +5C while lake water temps are still sitting at around +16C, this difference in temperature along with N/NE winds could help develop some lake effect rain showers near Lake Superior Sunday and Monday.
Note — The NAM model (shown below) is considerably wetter and farther north with the rains Saturday afternoon/evening compared to the European model which has the rain farther south, from eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin (mainly south of the Twin Ports)
Here’s the NAM 3km model radar forecast valid from Midnight tonight to 7 AM Sunday.
NWS Blend of Models total rainfall through 7 AM Sunday.
Here’s the HREF model forecast max rainfall amounts through 7 AM Sunday.
And the HREF model forecast probability matched-mean rainfall forecast through 7 AM Sunday.
System moving into the Northland on Saturday is over Montana this afternoon.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Friday, September 8, 2023 (loop time ends 4:30 PM CT)
It’s getting to be that time of the year where we start to see fall colors pop up across the region, but there isn’t much color out there yet, but that will be changing over the next few weeks.
Minnesota Fall Colors as of September 8, 2023.
Typically, we see fall colors peak in mid to late September in extreme northern Minnesota, and from mid-September to early October along the North Shore of Lake Superior and in much of northern Minnesota. Farther south including for east central Minnesota and Duluth, fall colors usually peak in late September to early October.
Wisconsin Fall Colors
80- and 90-degree temperatures didn’t stay away very long in southwest Minnesota as a bubble of very warm air moved into that part of the state this afternoon with much more seasonable temperatures in northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin today.
Thanks for reading!
Tim