6:27 PM Saturday, November 18, 2023
The next few days will remain on the mild side in the Northland, but a colder pattern develops midweek, and this colder pattern will probably linger for several days. It doesn’t look like will be seeing a whole lot of precipitation, however, for the rest of November which means that we probably won’t be seeing much snow anytime soon in much of the Northland.
Note — Today, November 18th marked the 5th day this month with a high of at least 50 degrees in Duluth. The average number of days in November where we see a high of at least 50 degrees in Duluth is 4 days.
Top 5 list for the greatest number of days in November with a high of at least 50 in Duluth.
1: 13 days set in 2016
2: 12 days set in 2015
3: 12 days set in 2001
4: 9 days set in 1981
5: 9 days set in 1964
Snowfall stats for Duluth for November 2023 (thru 4 PM on the 18th)
Total: 0.8″
Normal to date: 7.5″
Departure: -6.7″ below normal
Percent of normal snowfall to date: 11% of normal
Note — High temps for Sunday and Monday will be in the 40s across the Northland which is about +10 degrees above average for this time of the year.
Here’s a look at the average monthly temperatures and their departure from average across the Northland for November 2023 (thru the 17th)
Ashland, WI: 38.8 degrees, +3.6 degrees above average
Brainerd, MN: 37.0 degrees, +3.1 degrees above average
Duluth, MN: 36.1 degrees, +3.2 degrees above average
International Falls, MN: 32.8 degrees, +3.0 degrees above average
Hibbing, MN: 32.4 degrees, +3.5 degrees above average
Average temperatures so far this month are running warmer than average anywhere you see the orange and red colors on the map below.
Much colder temperatures look to arrive around midweek, especially from Thanksgiving through next weekend and perhaps even into the last week of November, and it looks like will see temperatures during each afternoon mainly in the 20s with overnight/morning temps in the single digits and 10s from around November 23-28.
Here’s the EPS model temperature anomaly forecast for November 23-28, 2023.
GEFS model temperature anomaly trend for November 23-28, 2023.
Oldest model run is Days 10-14 on the loop below and the newest model run is Days 6-10.
Below average temps in blue colors.
Might see a light dusting of snow (<1″ accumulation) in parts of the Northland on Tuesday but that looks to be about it in terms of snowfall potential at least through Thanksgiving.
But even looking out about 2 weeks or through December 4, 2023, doesn’t show any real significant snow accumulations in northeast Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin according to the GEFS model (shown below) with only 1 out of the 20 GEFS ensemble models showing something more than 6″ of snow and that is Ensemble Member 3 highlighted in red.
A cold front moving south/east out of the Dakotas on Monday could produce a little rain in northern Minnesota by Monday night otherwise most of the rain will be tied with a southern system which could affect eastern South Dakota and parts of southern Minnesota with some rain Sunday night and Monday.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid from 6 PM Sunday to 6 PM Monday.
Thanks for reading!
Tim