6:01 PM Friday, December 15, 2023
A messy system will continue to impact the Northland tonight through early Saturday afternoon with wet snow and rain.
A few inches of slushy snow accumulation are likely tonight into Saturday morning in parts of east central and northeast Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin, and with temperatures around 31 to 34 degrees, the snow that accumulates will be heavy and wet.
Duluth area: 2 to 4 inches of snow is possible by around mid-morning Saturday especially in higher elevation with more of a rain/snow mix in lower elevation closer to Lake Superior, but even here we could see a transition to all snow for a few hours early Saturday morning with a chance for about 1 to 2 inches of slushy snow accumulation closer to Lake Superior, but confidence for that to actually occur is pretty low given the marginal temperatures in place. Some lingering light rain and drizzle is possible Saturday afternoon with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. A period of gusty east winds are expected late this evening into Saturday morning with wind gusts of 15 to 30 mph. Winds diminish Saturday afternoon.
Rainfall Reports from today
Source: MesoWest
Note — Totals below are through 5:44 PM Friday.
French River, MN: 0.74″
Schroeder, MN: 0.72″
Hill City, MN: 0.69″
Duluth Airport: 0.57″
Saginaw, MN: 0.56″
Hibbing, MN: 0.53″
McGregor, MN: 0.49″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.47″
The Bay of Grand Marais, MN: 0.47″
Brainerd, MN: 0.45″
Washburn, WI: 0.44″
Esko, MN: 0.44″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.42″
Nashwauk, MN: 0.42″
Isabella, MN: 0.40″
Poplar, WI: 0.39″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.36″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.34″
Deer River, MN: 0.33″
Minong, WI: 0.31″
Hinckley, MN: 0.26″
Webb Lake, WI: 0.26″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.25″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.24″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.23″
Walker, MN: 0.20″
Ely, MN: 0.17″
Orr, MN: 0.12″
Siren, WI: 0.11″
Glidden, WI: 0.09″
Hayward, WI: 0.07″
Bigfork, MN: 0.07″
Littlefork, MN: 0.07″
International Falls, MN: 0.04″
Ashland, WI: 0.04″
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 6 PM Saturday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast through 12 PM Saturday.
A pair of upper-level lows and a broad upper-level trough are affecting the Northland today bringing widespread precipitation to the area but with such a mild air mass in place the precipitation we saw today was mainly in the form of rain with some impressive rainfall totals given that its mid-December.
This complex system will continue to affect our area tonight into Saturday, but precipitation will be diminishing as we get into Saturday afternoon.
Here’s a look at the system which is impacting the upper Midwest today via water vapor imagery.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Friday, December 15, 2023 (loop time ends 4:51 PM CT)
Although radar has been showing snow in parts of the Northland this afternoon, observations reveal that the precipitation continues to be in the form of rain, however, the Duluth Airport has changed over to light snow as of the 4 PM observation, and other locations in east central and northeast Minnesota especially away from Lake Superior should begin to see the rain switch over to wet snow this evening.
Determining precipitation types for tonight and Saturday morning will be tricky due to a marginally cold air mass over the area which consists of 850mb temperatures around -0C to +0C late this afternoon, but the 850mb temperatures are expected to drop a little more tonight ranging from -1 to -3C, but near surface temperatures will likely be in that 31 to 34 degree range which is on the mild side for getting snow.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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