4:26 PM Sunday, December 31, 2023
This week looks pretty dry in the Northland with more mild temperatures although not nearly as warm as we’ve been lately. A cold front or two will move through mid to late week bringing a few flakes to parts of the Northland with a chance for a little midweek lake effect snow in northern Wisconsin (South Shore).
Changes to the pattern are possible the week of January 7 but that certainly isn’t a lock just yet, and even if the pattern were to change, it’s uncertain how long a colder pattern would stick around for.
Keep in mind that Duluth hasn’t recorded a subzero temperature since November 28 (low of -2 degrees). No subzero nights in December (average is 8 subzero nights). And in January, Duluth averages 14 subzero nights.
A large storm is possible around January 8-10 but as is typical in a El Nino winter, the storm track tends to favor the Midwest, Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, and sure enough we’ve seen the computer models shift the storm track much farther south today for the January 8-10 time frame, but that’s not to say this system can’t trend farther northwest again since it’s still a week out.
EPS model 50-member snowfall forecast for Duluth has seen a decrease in the number of members showing 10″+ snow totals in Duluth ~January 8-10. 00z model run from early this morning was at 13/50 members (26%) but the 12z run from today is down to 4/50 members (8%). Trending in the wrong direction for a big snowfall event.
Warmest days in Duluth this week look to be Monday and Tuesday with highs near freezing, but after that it looks like will mostly be in the 20s for highs through next weekend with arctic air possible sometime the following week. Still no subzero nights in Duluth this week, but that might be changing after next weekend.
Both the EPS and GEFS ensemble models are in good agreement on the 500mb pattern for January 7-12.
Energy embedded in a large western trough should dig southeast into the southern Plains before lifting northeast toward the Midwest and Ohio Valley around January 8-10.
There is a potential that will see a rather significant winter storm with heavy snow and high winds develop across parts of the Central Plains into the southern Great Lakes around January 8-10, but the storm track at least for now isn’t favorable to get much snow in the Northland out of this potential winter storm.
Also of note, a system prior to the one around January 8-10 has a chance to drop some light snow amounts in parts of the Northland sometime around January 5-7.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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