6:46 PM Thursday, March 21, 2024
A potentially messy spring storm could impact the Northland late this weekend into early next week.
Note: I won’t be issuing my snowfall forecast for this potential storm until sometime on Saturday, but I might throw something together as preliminary thoughts on Friday, will see. I’m just seeing too much uncertainty in the computer models to make a snowfall forecast right now, but I did include the snowfall forecast from the National Weather Service Blend of Models, as well as the EPS model (euro ensemble) for those that may be interested to see what those ‘reliable’ computer models are showing in terms of snowfall totals for early next week.
We’re seeing two main storm tracks in the computer models for this system.
Track number 1 takes the low northeast out of eastern Nebraska, and then almost due north out of southern Minnesota with the low passing west of Duluth early Tuesday morning. This type of storm track would allow warmer air to push farther west/north out of southern Minnesota which would cause the snow to change over to rain or a wintry mix in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin and also in the Twin Ports and possibly the North Shore as well, and this change over from snow to rain or a wintry mix would occur from south to north late Monday afternoon or Monday evening the way it looks now.
Track number 2 keeps the low farther south/east as low-pressure lifts northeast out of eastern Nebraska with the low moving over central/northeast Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan Tuesday. This type of storm track would lock in enough cold air throughout the storm’s duration which would lead to snow as the main precipitation type in Duluth and in all of northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin.
There’s also the dry air component to this setup as will see a very strong high over Ontario and Hudson Bay Canada, and this high will send dry air southward into our area this weekend and this dry air may delay the arrival time of the snow in the Twin Ports.
Note: At the moment, it looks like will see snow develop in Duluth sometime Sunday afternoon, but this could be delayed until sometime Sunday night depending on how long the dry air sticks around for.
It’s also possible that the snow will have a tough time pushing much farther north than the Iron Range if this high doesn’t move far enough away early next week.
Note: The EPS model (euro ensemble) has a low-end snow amount of 6 inches for Duluth, and a high-end snow amount of 20 inches for Duluth early next week, with 35 out of 50 members forecasting at least 10 inches of snow with only 1 member forecasting 20 inches of snow.
Here’s what the NWS Blend of Models is showing for snowfall totals through 7 PM next Tuesday.
Duluth’s total is sitting at 23.5 inches of snow according to this model forecast. This is definitely a high-end total for this potential storm, and I have a feeling that total will start to decrease over the next few days.
There is a chance for some freezing rain in parts of northeast and central Minnesota Monday evening-Tuesday morning at least in the Euro model forecast (shown below) as the Euro model tracks the low farther west through Minnesota early next week.
Strong northeast winds are likely near Lake Superior and the Duluth area Sunday afternoon through Monday night with the strongest winds expected Monday-Monday night with wind gusts to 45 mph possible.
Euro model wind gust forecast valid 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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