5:31 PM Monday, April 1, 2024
A new week and another powerful spring storm, but there is a big difference between this storm and last week’s storm, and that would be the storm track. The storm track for this particular storm will be well southeast of the Northland as low pressure deepens considerably over northwest Indiana and western Lower Michigan Tuesday night thanks to additional energy which drops south/southeast out of northwest Minnesota, and this energy will meet up with another piece of energy which will track east-northeast out of the central Plains. The two meet up which will cause a substantial deepening to an area of low pressure east of Chicago Tuesday night.
The first wave of this storm has been producing some rain or a rain/snow mix in parts of southern Minnesota today with snow across central Wisconsin and rain across southern Wisconsin late this afternoon.
Always fascinating when we get a little Fujiwara effect in weather, and it looks like we may see this occur Tuesday night and Wednesday over the eastern Great Lakes as one mid-level low drops south/southeast out of central Minnesota with another mid-level low over western Michigan. The two lows move around each other to some extent initiating a bit of Fujiwara interaction!
NAM model 500mb vorticity forecast valid 4 PM Tuesday to 7 PM Wednesday.
The greatest snow accumulations with this upcoming storm are expected to fall over parts of southern and east central Wisconsin into central and eastern Upper Michigan where we could see upwards of 6 inches or more of snow Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
Winter Storm Watch covers much of upper Michigan as well as parts of northeast Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. This watch could be upgraded to a warning or advisory by Tuesday morning.
Here in the Northland, there is a chance for about 2 to 4 inches of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday along the South Shore of Lake Superior south/east of the Ashland area.
Snowfall totals of around a trace to a half an inch are possible in parts of north central and northeast Minnesota Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Note: It looks like the Twin Ports area may sit in between the precipitation Tuesday and Tuesday night with one area of snow showers or mixed rain/snow showers impacting parts of north central Minnesota, but this precipitation would move generally toward the south-southeast. And the other area of precipitation looks to affect parts of northwest Wisconsin where some snow is possible Tuesday and Tuesday night.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday.
Strong north winds Tuesday night and Wednesday
Gusty north winds of 20 to 40 mph are possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Tuesday night into Wednesday with even stronger winds with gusts of 45 to 60 mph possible in eastern Wisconsin and also closer to Lakes Superior and Michigan.
HRRR model wind gust forecast valid 1 PM Tuesday to 1 PM Wednesday.
Severe Thunderstorm Potential
Several tornado and severe thunderstorm watches are in effect through late this evening across the central and southern Plains.
The potential for widespread severe thunderstorms shifts farther east on Tuesday with a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms covering a large portion of Ohio as well as southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky and western West Virginia, but the risk of severe storms extends south to the Tennesse Valley and as far south as the Gulf Coast and as far east as Virginia and the Carolinas.
A few significant/long track tornadoes are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening centered over Ohio and extending southward across the Tennessee Valley (hatched area on the map below)
HRRR model simulated radar forecast through Midnight Wednesday.
The map below shows where rotating supercell thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday evening. More vibrant colors represent a greater potential for rotating storms.
HRRR model maximum updraft helicity tracks (0-3 km) through Midnight Wednesday.
Long Range Forecast
An amplified pattern sets up late in the week with two deep troughs to the west and east and a strong ridge in between. The Northland will be in the ridge portion of this pattern which means that our weather will be relatively quiet late this week into this weekend.
There continues to be a chance that will see the pattern turn a little more active across the Northland next week as that trough over the western U.S. pushes to the east and knocks down the ridge, but how much is uncertain right now.
Thanks for reading!
Tim