7:14 PM Saturday, April 27, 2024
Another wet system is set to impact the Northland from late Sunday into Monday. This system has significantly slowed, which is not uncommon given Sunday’s conditions, including strong northeast winds near Lake Superior and a robust high over Ontario. These factors will drive dry air southward into our region, while low pressure from the central Plains directs moisture northward.
Ultimately, the combination of low pressure and moisture will prevail, leading to rain advancing into the Northland from the south to the north. However, this is not expected to occur until mid to late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening. The far northern regions of Minnesota, including the Arrowhead area, are likely to start experiencing precipitation from this upcoming system late Sunday night or early Monday morning.
Duluth area: The majority of Sunday is expected to remain dry, however, the likelihood of rain will rise in the afternoon, particularly after 4 PM. Intermittent rain is anticipated to continue into Monday, with occasional pauses likely.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Monday.
An additional half inch to an inch of precipitation is forecasted for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from late Sunday into Monday.
There’s a possibility of wet snow or a rain-snow mix in the far northern Minnesota near the Ontario border early Monday morning, with a trace to one inch of snow potential, including the International Falls area.
There is a slight chance of freezing rain with potential ice accumulation from Sunday night into early Monday morning, particularly in the elevated inland areas near Lake Superior, or within the area outlined in black on the map below.
Strong northeast winds are expected near Lake Superior, including Duluth, on Sunday and Monday, with wind gusts ranging from 30 to 50 mph. The most intense winds are anticipated from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
NAM 3km model wind gust forecast valid 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Monday.
-A wind advisory will be in effect for the North Shore of Lake Superior from 4 PM Sunday to 4 PM Monday.
-A Wind Advisory will be in effect from 4 PM Sunday until 10 AM Monday, covering the Duluth area.
Note: Tree branches may fall, and some power outages could occur within the wind advisory area.
A northeast gale event is expected to hit western Lake Superior starting Sunday and continuing into Monday, with anticipated wave heights ranging from 7 to 14 feet.
The initial weather system that affected the Northland from Friday to Saturday morning has shifted northeast into eastern Ontario by late this afternoon. Meanwhile, the subsequent system is currently over the southern Plains and is expected to move northeast, influencing the Northland from Sunday afternoon into Monday.
The upcoming system is expected to follow a path quite similar to the previous one, though it may track slightly further to the south or east with the next low pressure area.
As the low passes to the south/east of Duluth, we will remain on the cooler side of the system, likely sparing us from thunderstorms. In fact, it is expected that most of the Northland will not experience any thunderstorms on Sunday night.
A dynamic weather pattern persists, with a broad trough enveloping the western United States and a ridge dominating the southeast and eastern regions today.
This evening, a multitude of tornado watches and a severe thunderstorm watch are active across the Midwest and southern Plains.
Friday witnessed severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, posing significant danger across the central and southern Plains.
As of now, there have been 83 preliminary filtered reports of tornadoes on Friday.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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