5:46 PM Tuesday, May 14, 2024
A low-pressure area is expected to move eastward across the Dakotas on Wednesday and the upper Midwest by Thursday. This system, along with favorable jet dynamics and significant lift, is likely to result in rainfall across the Northland, particularly from Wednesday evening to Thursday afternoon. There’s also a possibility of scattered showers by Wednesday afternoon, primarily in north-central Minnesota.
Note: The likelihood of rain in Duluth peaks Wednesday night into Thursday morning, while the probability decreases Thursday afternoon.
Here’s the NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 10 PM Thursday.
Rainfall totals for May 2024 have been updated through 4 PM on the 14th.
Duluth
Total: 1.71″
Departure: +0.30″ above normal
Percent of normal: 121% of normal
Brainerd
Total: 1.08″
Departure: -0.23″ below normal
Percent of normal: 82% of normal
International Falls
Total: 1.01″
Departure: -0.16″ below normal
Percent of normal: 86% of normal
Hibbing
Total: 0.84″
Departure: -0.26″ below normal
Percent of normal: 76% of normal
Ashland
Total: 0.64″
Departure: -0.81″ below normal
Percent of normal: 44% of normal
It appears that a significant portion of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin may receive about a quarter inch of rain from the approaching system, with areas in northern/eastern Minnesota potentially seeing higher amounts, possibly exceeding half an inch, according to current projections.
The upcoming two weeks appear to be quite active, with several opportunities for rainfall.
There is a strong consensus among the American, European, and Canadian ensemble models predicting rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches or more across the Northland through May 29th.
Tonight, there’s a possibility of frost (indicated by the blue area on the map below) in regions of northwest Wisconsin and Minnesota’s Arrowhead, where temperatures dipping to 34 degrees may lead to frost development.
Low temperature reports from Tuesday morning, May 14, 2024
Embarrass, MN: 29
Hibbing, MN: 30
Ely, MN: 30
Crane Lake, MN: 30
Orr, MN: 32
Cook, MN: 32
Hayward, WI: 32
Grand Marais Airport: 34
Eveleth, MN: 35
Two Harbors, MN: 36
Longville, MN: 36
Aitkin, MN: 37
Solon Springs, WI: 37
Bigfork, MN: 37
Ashland, WI: 37
International Falls, MN: 38
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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