5:59 PM Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Rain is expected to persist in the Northland area tonight, with periods of heavy rainfall possible.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected, particularly before midnight, with the highest potential for thunderstorms in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
This evening, there is a possibility of a few strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds to 60 mph as the primary threat, and a smaller chance of quarter-sized hail and a tornado. The threat area includes far eastern Minnesota and parts of northwest Wisconsin. Note: No severe thunderstorms are expected in Duluth tonight.
Rain should diminish from south to north in our area Wednesday morning, but a few showers will likely redevelop Wednesday afternoon.
Additional rainfall amounts ranging from around 0.50 inches to as much as 2 inches are forecast in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through early Wednesday morning with lesser amounts of rain expected in the Brainerd lakes area.
The windy conditions are expected to persist through tonight and into Wednesday, with northeast winds this evening transitioning to westerly winds by Wednesday. Wind gusts may reach speeds ranging from 25 to 45 mph both tonight and Wednesday.
Note: Rainfall is expected to decrease in Duluth between 2 and 4 AM on Wednesday, with only sporadic showers anticipated throughout the day.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 7 PM Wednesday.
Flood Watch continues in all of northeast Minnesota and in parts of northwest Wisconsin through Wednesday morning.
-Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
-Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Radar loop from Tuesday, May 21, 2024. Loop time ends 5:50 PM CT.
Red: Tornado Warning
Yellow: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Take a look at the intense spring storm ascending into the upper Midwest today, as captured by the GOES-16 satellite imagery.
Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 5:41 PM Tuesday, May 21, 2024.
Goes-16 infrared satellite loop ending 5:41 PM Tuesday, May 21, 2024.
A severe thunderstorm outbreak, with the potential for intense, long-track tornadoes, is expected to persist into the evening across southern Minnesota, western and southern Wisconsin, much of Iowa, and into western Illinois and Missouri.
One PDS tornado watch, and two additional tornado watches are currently in effect through this evening.
Additional weather watches may be issued later this afternoon, extending northeast into various regions of Wisconsin and Illinois.
A potent low-pressure system over southwest Iowa will intensify as it moves northward. It is predicted to traverse far northwest Wisconsin later tonight and pass west of Thunder Bay, Ontario, during Wednesday. The central pressure of this system is expected to fall to approximately 984mb by Wednesday.
The significant uplift near the surface low west of Thunder Bay, Ontario, on Wednesday will create substantial dynamic cooling. This will result in the rain transitioning to snow throughout the day in parts of western Ontario, Canada. However, no snowfall is anticipated in the Northland region on Wednesday.
Today, the Northland is positioned between two jet streaks—areas of faster winds aloft—which results in enhanced lift for our region. This condition is expected to persist into the evening.
The upper trough moving northeast into the upper Midwest today is linked with significant 500mb height decreases, reaching up to -60 meters.
Abundant low-level moisture is contributing to today’s severe weather outbreak, with dew points around 60 degrees as far north as eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by late afternoon, and even higher dew points in the 60s further south.
Today, the air is saturated with moisture, with precipitable water values ranging between 1.10″ and 1.50″ across the region. This moisture-rich airmass is expected to linger over the Northland tonight, increasing the likelihood of moderate to heavy rainfall at intervals.
The upcoming weather system, expected to arrive in the Northland by Friday, may bring another bout of rainfall to the region on that day, while some snow could fall in parts of western/central North Dakota.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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