6:00 PM Wednesday, January 15, 2025
- Temperatures are forecast to drop below zero in Duluth Saturday evening and will likely remain below zero until sometime Tuesday afternoon.
- High temperatures are only expected to range from around 8 below to 15 below zero in Duluth Sunday and Monday with lows ranging from around 15 below to 25 below zero.
- Lows in the 30s below zero are possible in the typical cold spots across northern Minnesota early next week.
- Wind chill or “feels like” temperatures will likely fall to around 30 to 40 degrees below zero in the Northland this weekend and early next week.
Note: When compared to the normals at this time of year in the Northland, the forecasted temperatures on Sunday and Monday will average around 25 degrees below normal for highs and around 20 degrees below normal for lows.
Of the arctic airmasses we’ve seen so far this winter, we’ve yet to see temperatures at the 850mb level reach -30°C, but that will change with this next blast of arctic air Sunday and Monday, as we’ll see 850mb temperatures bottom out at around -30 to -34°C in the Northland, which is quite impressive for this area.
Confidence is high that this will be a frigid airmass affecting the Northland this weekend and early next week; this is due to the ensemble guidance, which all agree (20 members in all) on 850 mb temperatures dropping to at least -30°C in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Usually, at least a few of the 20 members would be somewhat different, but as you can see on the map below, they all agree with one another.
GEFS model forecast
Watch the progression of the Arctic air this weekend and next week indicated by the green and darker blue colors on the loop below.
Euro ensemble model 500mb forecast valid January 17-24, 2025.
But before all this arctic air arrives this weekend, we do have some milder days ahead, and this warming is in full force this afternoon.
Note: Highs in the mid-20s to around 30 are likely in our area on Thursday, with low to mid-30s expected on Friday. It will stay breezy, however, with wind gusts of 15 to 35 mph at times.
Check out the 24-hour temperature change map valid at 4 PM today.
Temperatures are running 30 to 35 degrees warmer late this afternoon compared to late Tuesday afternoon over the eastern Dakotas into far western Minnesota.
Note: It was 7 degrees below zero in Duluth at 3 AM this morning. The temperature is now up to 16 degrees as of 5 PM today, and after midnight tonight, temperatures will likely range from around 25 to 30 degrees.
Widespread 30s were found over the Dakotas this afternoon, with even a few 40s mixed in.
A few clipper systems will be passing across the region through Friday, bringing occasional flurries and snow showers to the Northland, but snow accumulations should be less than an inch.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 6 AM Thursday.
Thanks for reading!