Weather Blog for Duluth and the Northland

6:20 PM Tuesday, March 4, 2025

A very dynamic storm will continue to lift northeast out of Missouri tonight.

A low-pressure system of 986mb over western Missouri this afternoon will move northeast toward Chicago, IL by mid-morning Wednesday, and will reach Lake Huron by Wednesday evening. The central pressure is expected to drop to about 981-983mb.

A strong 1024mb high pressure over northeast Montana will work with a deep surface low to the southeast, creating a tight pressure gradient that will cause widespread windy weather until Wednesday evening.

-Snow tonight in parts of northeast and east-central Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin.

-Moderate to heavy snowfall rates of 0.5″ to around 1″/hour are possible late tonight through Wednesday morning over parts of northwest Wisconsin.

-Snow tapers off from west to east on Wednesday, lingering the longest along the south shore of Lake Superior.

– Strong north winds of 15 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 to 45 mph, will cause areas of blowing snow in northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota tonight and Wednesday. Note: Occasional whiteout or near whiteout conditions are possible late tonight into Wednesday over parts of northwest Wisconsin.

-Temperatures Wednesday in the 20s to lower 30s, falling to the single digits and teens Wednesday night.

NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 6 PM Wednesday.

Here’s my updated snowfall forecast as of late Tuesday afternoon.

Duluth area: 2 to 4 inches of snow is possible by early Wednesday afternoon. Most of the snow falls tonight through about mid-morning on Wednesday with snow tapering off by Wednesday afternoon.

Greatest snow amounts with this storm will be in northwest Wisconsin especially along the South Shore of Lake Superior where snow totals could approach a foot or more in some locations by late Wednesday afternoon.

Winter Weather Alerts

• Winter Storm Warning for all of northwest Wisconsin through Wednesday afternoon.
• Winter Weather Advisory for a part of eastern Minnesota including the Duluth metro area until Noon Wednesday.

Here’s a regional view of current winter weather headlines, which include a blizzard warning for parts of southern Minnesota, much of western and central Iowa, parts of northern/eastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and northwest Missouri.

Widespread high wind alerts in effect

Widespread wind gusts of 50 to 75 mph have been observed today from Nebraska to Texas due to a deep low-pressure system in western Missouri. In western Kansas, gusts reached as high as 80 to 90 mph today.

NAM 3km model wind gust forecast through 7 PM Wednesday.

This afternoon’s temperatures vary greatly, from the 20s in northwest Minnesota to the 40s in southern Minnesota, with even warmer conditions farther to the southeast.

Colder air continues to advect south/east across the area this afternoon.

Watch the progression of the 0°C 850 mb temperature contour represented by the darker blue on the map.

In order to start talking about snow as a possibility, you first need temperatures at 850 mb of 0°C or colder; then, you need a response to the surface temperatures, which need to fall to at least 34 or 35 degrees in order to get snow.

Loop ends 4 PM CT Tuesday, March 4, 2025.

A powerful storm lifting northeast out of the central Plains this evening.

Goes-16 infrared satellite loop ending 4:54 PM CT Tuesday, March 4, 2025.

Two jet streaks (areas of stronger winds aloft) are feeding into this storm today, with strong divergence/enhanced lift occurring between these two jet streaks.

The 500mb analysis from late Tuesday afternoon shows a strong trough/upper low moving northeast from the central Plains, while another trough moves southeast from the northern Plains. Although these systems won’t fully merge, some partial merging will happen by Wednesday. Overall, this is a very powerful storm.

Thanks for reading!