Dry weather will stick around in the Northland tonight and through most of Saturday, but the chance for occasional rain will increase later in the day and continue into Sunday night.
This rain will be caused by a northward-lifting warm front, which is forecast to be over southern Kansas around 7 AM Saturday, reaching the southern half of Minnesota by 7 AM Sunday. Warm air and moisture advection will occur across the Northland ahead of the warm front Saturday afternoon into Sunday, and lift provided by the boundary, along with an increasing low-level jet, will be enough to produce some rain at times later Saturday into Sunday evening.
As the warm front approaches the Northland, instability is set to rise, with elevated CAPE values of 250–750 J/kg developing Saturday night and sticking around into Sunday. This boost in instability, along with steepening mid-level lapse rates, should be enough to spark some thunderstorms, with the chance for hail and gusty winds.
…Flood Watch…
A flood watch is in effect for the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin from Saturday evening through Wednesday morning. Rain and snowmelt could lead to flooding, with excessive runoff potentially impacting rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying or flood-prone areas. Poor drainage spots and urban locations may also experience flooding.
As of 7 AM on April 10, 2026, modeled snow depths indicate 12 to 18 inches or more still blanketing the ground along the North Shore of Lake Superior in northeast Minnesota, as well as parts of the South Shore in northwest Wisconsin, particularly around the Bayfield Peninsula and southeast of Ashland.
As of 7 AM on April 10, 2026, parts of the Northland still have about 2 to 8 inches or more of water in the remaining snowpack, mainly along the North Shore and parts of the South Shore, according to modeled snow water equivalent.
Between Saturday afternoon and Sunday evening, much of northwest Wisconsin and areas from the North Shore to eastern Minnesota are expected to see rainfall ranging from a quarter to half an inch or more. Farther west, rainfall will be lighter, with totals generally under a quarter inch.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 12 PM Saturday to 12 PM Sunday.
…Severe weather chances this weekend…
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Saturday night and Sunday. However, if a few stronger storms do develop, they’re most likely to pop up Sunday afternoon into early evening in parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin (marked in dark green on the map). That’s when moisture peaks, with dew points rising into the 50s and temperatures reaching the 60s and 70s.
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