It looks like east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will see most of the rain, starting Tuesday afternoon in the west and later in the afternoon in the east.
Northern Minnesota may not get much rain from this system, and Duluth seems to be right on the edge between seeing a decent amount and just light showers. If rain does reach Duluth, it will likely be late Tuesday afternoon or evening.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 12 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday.
…Rainfall Totals…
The Euro model isn’t too impressed with Tuesday’s rainfall, showing about 0.10 inches in Duluth, while Brainerd could pick up half an inch or more.
The HREF model is predicting higher rain totals, with 0.90 inches expected in Duluth and 1 inch or more farther west, including the Brainerd Lakes area.
A blended model approach indicates that east central Minnesota will receive between half an inch to an inch or more of rain, while areas farther north will see a quarter inch or less, with Duluth expecting a quarter to half an inch of rain.
Rainfall totals for June 2026 through the 22nd
Duluth
Total: 2.66″
Departure: -0.40″
Ashland
Total: 2.64″
Departure: -0.24″
Hibbing
Total: 2.38″
Departure: -0.66″
Brainerd
Total: 1.31″
Departure: -1.52″
International Falls
Total: 0.95″
Departure: -1.74″
Even with frequent rains in some parts of the area this month, rainfall totals are still running a quarter to half an inch below normal, and places like International Falls and Brainerd are more than an inch short for the month.
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…Low risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday…
A few strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, especially Tuesday afternoon and evening, across central and western Minnesota and farther south in the darker green-shaded areas. This level 1, or marginal risk, for severe storms also reaches into western parts of the Northland, mainly along and west of a line from International Falls to Brainerd.
On Tuesday, the main severe weather threat will be large hail, ranging from quarter-sized to ping pong ball-sized (1 to 1.50 inches in diameter), with a lower chance of damaging winds.
The lighter green shaded area could see some thunderstorms, but no severe weather is expected.
…Temperature trends…
The daily high temperature chart for Duluth, Minnesota in June 2026 shows plenty of days in the 70s, a handful in the 60s, even one day in the 50s, and just a single day reaching 80, which was June 3rd.
By the way, today’s high on June 22 was 68 degrees, matching the trend we’ve been seeing a lot this month.
Looking ahead, no major warm or muggy weather is expected this week, with highs mostly in the 60s to low 70s. However, on Wednesday, some areas in the Northland might not get out of the 50s.
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