New trends are starting to emerge in the model guidance from Sunday evening for Monday.
There’s a chance a line of thunderstorms could form over western Nebraska or western South Dakota overnight, then race northeast, possibly impacting parts of north-central and northeast Minnesota from mid to late Monday morning into the mid-afternoon. If these storms do develop and move through the Northland, they could bring at least an isolated risk of wind and hail.
The impact on storm potential for late Monday afternoon into Monday night is uncertain right now, as forecasts differ—some indicate more storms could develop later in the day or evening, while others suggest little to no activity.
If storms roll in Monday morning, they could slow the northward movement of a warm front lifting out of southern Minnesota.
According to the HRRR model, the main storm zone will stay across far northern Minnesota, well north of Duluth, throughout Monday until about 7 PM.
The HRW-ARW model indicates the storms will take a slightly more southern path throughout the day on Monday.
Thunderstorm chances remain for the rest of tonight, with scattered showers and storms likely developing across northeast and east-central Minnesota and into northwest Wisconsin as the night goes on.
As anticipated, elevated instability has increased sharply late this evening, hitting around 1000 J/kg and possibly climbing a bit more overnight. This brings a chance for a few stronger storms, with the main concern being hail up to quarter size (1″ diameter) through the night.
Radar loop ends 10:52 PM Sunday, June 28, 2026.
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