Issued at 7:29 PM CST, Sunday, January 11th, 2009
A disturbance tracked across Minnesota late last night and This Morning which brought a dusting of new snow to parts of the state, this feature exited to our east by This Afternoon leaving behind partly sunny to mostly sunny skies around the Gopher state with daytime highs in the single digits, teens, and low 20s. Winds across the state were out of the north or west Today around 20 mph or less. 850 mb temps at 00z ranged from -8 to -12 degrees C around Minnesota with the first signs of the well advertised arctic push showing up over Central Canada This Evening where 850 mb temps had dropped to between -20 and -24 degrees C. An area of warmer air with 850 mb temps of +2 to +6 degrees C extended from Central Montana to Western South Dakota and through the Central Rockies-Western High Plains, but the majority of this warm air will slip southwest and south of Minnesota during the next 12-18 hours.
Low pressure of 1012 mb at 00z was centered over the Northeast Montana/Western North Dakota/Southern Saskatchewan Province area with an 850 mb low centered over Southern Saskatchewan. 90 meter 12-hour 500 mb height falls were centered over Northeast Montana and Southern Saskatchewan This Evening in assocation with this storm system with 130-150 knot jet stream winds analyzed This Evening to the west and southwest of where the surface and upper level lows were located.
An area of snow has been developing and progressing east-southeast through Western and Central North Dakota into Northern and Central South Dakota This Evening. The snow has been forming in an area with frontogenesis and warm advection along with good convergence located south and east of the low pressure system.
Tonight through Tuesday:
The clipper low will continue to track southeast through Monday Evening. The low is forecast to reach Eastern South Dakota/Southwestern Minnesota Monday Morning, then will reach Eastern Illinois by late Monday Afternoon.
This storm will bring snow to much of Minnesota Tonight and Monday with snow spreading west to east-southeast across the state during this time.
The highest snowfall totals will occur over Westcentral and Southcentral Minnesota where 2 to 5 inches of accumulation could occur by Monday Afternoon. Northwest, Central, and Eastern areas of the state could see 1 to perhaps 3 inches of snow with Northern portions of Minnesota seeing a dusting to around an inch of new snow by Monday.
Low temperatures around the state Tonight will range from zero to around 10 below over parts of Northeast and Northern Minnesota with near steady or slowly rising temps in the single digits, teens, and 20s for the remainder of Minnesota. High temps on Monday will reach the single digits, teens, and 20s with falling temperatures to the single digits South and from zero to 10 below North by late Afternoon.
Winds Tonight will be out of the northwest, south, or east under 20 mph. Winds on Monday will shift to the north-northwest and increase to 10 to 25 mph, but wind gusts from 25 to 45 mph are expected from Western to Southern Minnesota.
Blowing and drifting snow will become an issue across portions of Minnesota late Tonight into Monday with blizzard conditions developing over Western-Southern areas of the state early Monday through Monday Afternoon.
Bitter cold temps and dangerous wind chills will overspread all of Minnesota Monday Night as skies clear and arctic high pressure builds in from the west. Look for low temperatures to range from 5 below to 15 below zero with 15 below to 35 below zero temps expected over parts of Central and Northern Minnesota. Northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible will cause wind chills to drop into the 20 below to 40 below range statewide with 40 below to 50 below zero wind chills possible across the North. Exposed flesh could freeze in 10 minutes or less in conditions like these.
Arctic air will remain over the state on Tuesday with partly cloudy to sunny skies expected. Highs will range from 15 below to around zero. Clouds will increase late Tuesday into Tuesday Night as the next clipper system tracks southeast from Northwest Canada. This system should take a pretty similar track to Monday’s clipper… Looks like most of Minnesota will see some snow Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Midday with the higher amounts of snow expected to fall from Western to Southern Minnesota the way it looks now.
Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
*Wind Chill Watch* in effect Monday Evening through Tuesday Morning…
.Tonight… Clear skies with increasing clouds late. Low 3 to 9. Wind northwest under 15 mph, becoming variable late.
.Monday… Light snow and flurries with accumulations around an inch. Turning windy and colder. High 14 to 20 with temperatures falling to around zero later in the day. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph, becoming north to northwest and increasing to 15 to 30 mph during the Afternoon.
.Monday Night… Bitter cold with dangerous wind chills. Clearing. Low 17 below to 24 below. Wind northwest at 12 to 24 mph. Wind chills ranging from 35 below to 50 below.
.Tuesday… Bitter cold with dangerous wind chills during the Morning. Mostly sunny. High 1 below to 8 below. Wind chills 35 below to 50 below during the Morning.
.Tuesday Night… Increasing clouds. Light snow or flurries possible. Low steady from 1 below to 8 below. Chance of snow 20%.
.Wednesday… Light snow or flurries possible during the Morning. Total accumulations around an inch or less expected. High 1 above to 7 above. Chance of snow 20%.
.Wednesday Night… Frigid… Clear. Low 16 below to 23 below.
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 17 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow -2 degrees