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1/19/09: Monday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:24 PM CST, Monday, January 19th, 2009

Surface Analysis at 21z:

Low pressure averaging 1004 mb was centered over Southeastern Ontario. A warm front stretched from the Western half of Ontario Province down to Central Minnesota.

Upper Air Analysis at 21z:

Big Western ridge and an upper level low over Eastern Canada pretty much sums up the weather pattern around the U.S. Today. Northerly flow aloft continues between these two features in Minnesota with two disturbances dropping S-SE within this flow. The first disturbance was heading through Southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin with a second disturbance heading south out of the Lake Nipigon area or near Thunder Bay Ontario Canada. 850 mb temperatures at 3 PM Today ranged from -4 to -14 degrees C around Minnesota with +2 to +18 degree C 850 mb temps covering the Western half of the U.S. as well as areas of the Central Plains and Northern Plains.

An unsettled weather pattern remained over Minnesota Today with areas of snow showers and flurries falling at times over parts of the state. Some of the more intense, albeit brief snow showers occurred over Northeast and Southeast areas of the state thanks in part to some steep lapse rates which were in the 6.0-7.0 c/km range Today.

High temperatures around Minnesota peaked in the teens and 20s Today with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies covering the state along with north or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts out west.

3 PM temperatures around the state ranged from 27 degrees at Hallock to 18 degrees at Big Fork to 17 degrees at Duluth to 27 degrees at Wheaton to 28 degrees at Canby to 23 degrees at Glencoe to 19 degrees at Rochester.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

Northerly flow aloft will transition to a northwest flow aloft around Minnesota during this forecast period as the huge ridge out west begins to push east and southeast during the next 24-36 hours. Scattered snow showers and flurries will end This Evening across Minnesota with dry weather prevailing Overnight. A warm front and trough will then progress across Minnesota Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night which may lead to some flurries or perhaps some patchy light freezing drizzle to Northern areas of the state. Low temperatures Tonight will be in the single digits and teens below to above zero with high temps Tuesday in the teens, 20s, and 30s. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the teens and 20s. Winds will be out of the north or northwest Tonight, and from the west or southwest Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Wind speeds will generally be in the 10 to 20 mph range.

Extended Forecast:

Arctic push is being delayed til later this week and this coming weekend, still looks mighty cold though around Minnesota once the arctic front moves through and the big arctic high builds in from Northwestern Canada…

Wednesday and Thursday should feature high temps in the teens, 20s, and 30s around Minnesota ahead of the cold front with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens below to above zero. As the cold front drops south, an area of low pressure will likely develop and track along this boundary…Looks as if the bulk of the lift and snow associated with this low will fall N/NE of Minnesota, but it does bear watching as at least one GFS model run (6z run) from earlier Today did bring some accumulating snow along with E-NE winds down to Duluth from late Thursday through late Friday Night. The 12z GFS model run from Today backed off on this solution though, keeping any appreciable snow N/NE of Minnesota.

Spread among the forecast models remains quite high from late this week into the weekend, so it’s difficult to say how long this next arctic blast will linger around the Upper Midwest.

Also gonna have to keep a watchful eye on how the whole upper level pattern evolves later this weekend into next week as the core of the cold air may begin to back toward the West half of Canada which may at least for a time cause the flow aloft to turn more SWRLY…If that happens and we can get a storm to form over the Rockies/Plains, then we could be looking at growing prospects for meaningful amounts of snow for some parts of the Upper Midwest.

The 00z EURO and 00z GEM models from Sunday Evening were hinting at a potential snow event for parts of Minnesota late this weekend or early next week, but the latest GEM has backed off on this possibility.

00z GFS model from earlier Today showed a whopper of a storm 980-987 mb tracking from Northeast Colorado toward Lake Michigan around the middle of next week…But the last two runs off the GFS have totally dropped this solution.

The models are showing quite a bit of volatility by this weekend as seen by how much there changing from model run to model run.

Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy with flurries ending This Evening. Low 4 below to 6 above. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday… Variable clouds. High 20 to 25. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 12 to 18. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday… Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Thursday… Flurries possible. High 22 to 28.

.Thursday Night… Flurries possible. Low zero to 5 below.

4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 18 degrees

Dewpoint: 12 degrees

Humidity: 78%

Wind: NNE at 4 mph G 9 mph

Max Temperature Today: 19.6 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 90%

Min Temperature Today: 3 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 70%

Tim
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