Issued at 4:17 PM CST, Sunday, January 18th, 2009
Surface Analysis at 22z:
Low pressure averaging 1010 mb was centered over Southeast Minnesota. Cold front attached to this low extended from Southwestern Manitoba to Western Minnesota to Southeast Minnesota where it turns into a warm front. High pressure averaging 1020 mb was centered over Central Manitoba. Low pressure averaging 1004 mb was centered over Central Lake Huron.
Upper Air Analysis at 22z:
Very amplified pattern continues around the U.S. with a huge ridge covering areas from the Rockies west…850 mb temps underneath this ridge ranged from +4 to +16 degrees C This Afternoon with the 60 degree surface temperature line reaching as far north as Southwestern Nebraska This Afternoon with the 32 degree surface temperature line extending from Western to Southern North Dakota through Northern to Southeast South Dakota. Minnesota remains well to the east of this upper level ridge Today with a persistent northerly flow aloft around our area. 850 mb temps around Minnesota ranged from minus 14 degrees C from Northcentral through Northeast to Eastcentral Minnesota to minus 4 to minus 6 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota.
The surface low centered over Lake Huron Today combined with the mid/upper level lows over the Eastern Great Lakes caused a cyclonic flow around Minnesota Today, this combined with yet another disturbance passing north to south across the state led to a round of fluffy snow showers around parts of Minnesota Today. The snow showers were mainly confined to Eastern parts of Minnesota Today with new snow accumulations around an inch or less. There was a brief period of heavier snowfall late This Morning just outside of Duluth-Superior thanks to a NE wind at 850 mb which caused a brief period of lake effect snow just east-southeast of the city, surface winds were too northerly though to bring this lake snow west into Duluth.
High temperatures around Minnesota were in the teens, 20s, and low 30s Today with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with north or northwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with some higher gusts out west.
Temperatures around Minnesota at 4 PM Today ranged from 21 degrees at Roseau to 16 degrees at Orr to 18 degrees at Silver Bay to 27 degrees at Wheaton to 23 degrees at Little Falls to 30 degrees at Canby to 28 degrees at Waseca to 28 degrees at Austin.
Tonight through Monday Night:
Big ridge stays put to our west while a northerly flow aloft persists over Minnesota. Another disturbance will drop south out of Northern Canada and through Minnesota later Tonight and Monday, this feature will bring another period of snow showers and flurries around the state during that time with snow accumulations of an inch or less expected. Flurries could linger into Monday Night as well, but no accumulations are expected. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover the state during this period with lows Tonight and Monday Night in the single digits and teens below to above zero with highs Monday in the teens, 20s, and 30s. Winds during this period will be out of the north or west around 20 mph or less.
A pretty strong area of low pressure will be passing well to the N-NE of Minnesota around mid-week, this low will do two things…One, it will allow for brief thawing conditions around Minnesota Tuesday and Wednesday as southwesterly winds increase ahead of this low and out ahead of an arctic front…This arctic boundary will settle south into Minnesota Thursday and Friday the way it looks now. Northerly winds and frigid air look to return to Minnesota later this week, once this cold front moves through. This next arctic surge could end up being much like this last one we had to deal with around Minnesota with the possibility of it lingering for several days once it arrives. It must be noted though that there is rather large spread amongst the long range forecast models as we head beyond Thursday and Friday, so things could change somewhat between now and then, but right now and for the last few days it seems pretty certain that it will be turning very cold around Minnesota once again, just how cold seems to be up in the air at this time.
High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday around Minnesota will be in the teens, 20s, and 30s with a few 40s possible for Southwest areas of the state. Low temps Tuesday and Wednesday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s.
Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
.Tonight… Variable clouds. Flurries possible. Low 2 below to 6 above. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… A period of snow showers during the Morning and early Afternoon with flurries after. Accumulations of an inch or less. Variable clouds. High 15 to 22. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind north to northwest under 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Variable clouds. Flurries possible. High 20 to 25.
.Tuesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.
.Wednesday… Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.