Issued at 4:08 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
(Today’s Weather)
A very warm and humid day across our area with a cold front moving east out of Western Minnesota. Highs were in the 70s and 80s Today with a few locales pushing toward 90 degrees. Dewpoints were generally in the 60s with PWS of 0.80″1.60″…Lowest in the eastern areas with richer moisture to our west and northwest. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph which has caused some cooling closer to Lake Superior. Scattered supercells formed for a time between 1-3 PM This Afternoon in Eastcentral Minnesota…Generally in Crow Wing/Aitkin counties…These storms have for the most part diminished in intensity over the last hour…However additional storms are firing off at times across Crow Wing/Cass counties late Today. Storm motions have been toward the east or east-northeast This Afternoon.
(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)
Hot H5 ridge was baking the Central-Southern Plains This Afternoon while disturbances continue to ride up and around this ridge triggering scattered strong to severe convection across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Today. Upper level troughs were in place across the Western U.S. and across the Northeast U.S.
(Tonight)
A cold front will be moving south-east across most of our area during the night. Plenty of instability will be found along and ahead of this boundary Tonight with CAPES of 1000-2500 j/kg during the Evening hours with LI’S of -2 to -8 degrees C. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear will range from 30 up to 40 knots with a weak southwesterly LLJ of 20-30 knots and faster H5 winds from the W-SW at 30-45 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the area Tonight…although capping issues and a lack of deeper moisture outside of the west-southwest portions of our area could keep the severe threat pretty isolated. If the mid/upper level moisture can increase ahead of the cold front This Evening…then the risk for severe weather could become somewhat more widespread than what were seeing late This Afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s with south or east winds turning west and northwest around 15 mph. If storms become severe the main threats will continue to be large hail and damaging winds.
(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)
Cold front will settle south out of our area on Wednesday with high pressure building into our area from the west which will help squash the H5 ridge a bit more to the south compared to where it’s been the last day or so. A risk for a few showers or thunderstorms could linger Tomorrow mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly Pine County Minnesota…Otherwise dry weather is anticipated during this period with lowering humidity and very pleasant temperatures. Highs Wednesday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Wednesday Night in the 50s and 60s. Look for west, southwest, or northwest winds at 10-20 mph during this period.
(Extended Forecast)
High pressure will remain in control of our weather Thursday and Thursday Night which will cause clear-partly cloudy skies with mild temperatures and tolerable humidity. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s. High pressure pushes east of our area Friday making way for the next low pressure system and cold front which look to pass through our area sometime Friday Night or Saturday. This system could produce another round of showers and thunderstorms and a possible severe weather threat later this week. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s but some 90s are possible in southern areas. Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.
It should be noted that the longer range forecast models are beginning to show a possible pattern change which would put our area back in a Northwest flow aloft or basically the same old pattern we’ve been locked into for the most part since last Winter. This pattern change may take place later this weekend and it could last for a while if it does occur since it seems like once we get into a northwest flow aloft it doesn’t really wanna break down for quite some time. That’ll be something to keep an eye on during the next few days.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
*Severe Thunderstorm Watch* number 500 remains in effect until 8 PM CDT This Evening…
.Tonight… Humid. Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible through about Midnight. A few storms could become severe with large hail and damaging winds. Low 58 to 63. Wind southwest becoming west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Variable winds becoming west at 10 to 15 mph during the night closer to Lake Superior. Chance of rain 30%.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly clear. Low 56 to 61. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Mostly sunny. High 82 to 87.
.Thursday Night… Mostly clear. Low 60 to 65.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 85 to 90.
.Friday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.
.Saturday… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 78 to 83. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees
Tim
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