Issued at 2:17 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 24th, 2009
Note: The Duluth Airport was just 5 degrees off from the record high temperature of 92 degrees on Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009. The official high temperature for Tuesday was 87 degrees at the Airport in Duluth, MN.
Here are the storm reports from Eastcentral Minnesota from Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009. Data provided by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.
Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 0.50″ diameter hail at 345 PM CDT. Dime size hail was reported on the north side of town.
Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 0.50″ diameter hail at 344 PM CDT.
Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 0.75″ diameter hail in Downtown Brainerd at 344 PM CDT.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
(Today’s Weather)
Weak area of high pressure of 1014 mb was building into Northern Minnesota from Eastern North Dakota This Afternoon with a cold front turning stationary across Southern Minnesota. Drier air has been pushing into our local area Today behind this cold front while the real muggy air was confined to Southern Minnesota. Dewpoints across our area were in the 40s, 50s, and low 60s This Afternoon with temperatures in the 70s and 80s along with west, southwest, or north winds around 15 mph or less. 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from +15 to +17 degrees C. Partly-mostly sunny skies were found across our area Today with some radar echoes passing through Southern Burnett…Washburn…and Sawyer counties in Northwest Wisconsin Today but there’s been little if any rain reaching the ground.
(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)
Large H5 ridge covered much of the Central and Southern Rockies…Plains…and the Southern parts of the U.S. This Afternoon with the ridge axis extending from Southern California to Central Wyoming to Central Iowa to Southeast Mississippi per RUC model analysis. Fast winds aloft were found north of this ridge from the Pacific Northwest east through the Upper Midwest. Upper level lows were centered just off the Eastern seaboard with a very strong upper level low associated with 150 meter H5 12 hour height falls moving toward Southwestern British Columbia This Afternoon. Of greater concern for our area is the disturbance coming east-southeast out of the Northern Rockies Today although the main impacts out of that feature will likely remain south of our area.
(Tonight)
The aforementioned disturbance moving into the Northern Plains will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly southwest-south of our area Tonight…although some showers may make sneak into the Brainerd/Hinckley/Siren/Hayward/Park Falls area in Minnesota and Wisconsin especially This Evening… Otherwise look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 50s and low 60s but some patchy 40s are possible up North. Winds will be out of the west, north, or southwest around 15 mph or less.
(Thursday and Thursday Night)
High pressure will be in control of our weather although we will see a cold front head south out of Central Canada with this boundary moving into Northern Minnesota later Thursday and Thursday Night. A stray shower or thunderstorm could develop near this boundary in far Northern Minnesota Thursday Afternoon or Thursday Night…otherwise this period looks high and dry across our area with mild temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and low 60s with some 40s possible once again in Northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the southwest, west, or north at 10-20 mph.
(Extended Forecast)
High pressure will move off to our east on Friday with a southerly return flow becoming established across the Upper Midwest between the departing high and an area of low pressure which will approach the region from the Northern Rockies/Western High Plains. The cold front which will drop south out of Central Canada is forecast to turn into a warm front across Southern or Central Minnesota on Friday with this boundary lifting north-east Friday Night and Saturday which will then be followed by a fairly potent cold front which should move through our area on Saturday. Showers or thunderstorms are possible as this system moves across the area Friday Night and Saturday. Severe weather chances don’t look very good at this point since it appears that this system will be coming through at an unfavorable time of day to support a bigger severe weather risk for our area…although if it slows down some…then Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota could be under the gun for some severe weather Saturday Afternoon or Saturday Evening. This system looks fairly dynamic at this point with fairly strong W-SW H5 winds of 35-50 knots and a pretty decent low level jet of 30-45 knots. Shear also looks pretty good at this point as does the moisture return into this system… Will continue to monitor the evolution of this system for any possible changes over the next 24-36 hours. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with a few spots nearing 90 degrees toward the Brainerd area. It does look like will see an onshore wind kick back up by Friday so it will turn cooler closer to Lake Superior. Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Highs Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night in the 50s to low 60s.
Models diverge greatly from late this weekend into the early part of next week. 12Z GFS from Today has a cut-off low…very chilly temperatures…and off an on rainy spells across our area from Sunday through perhaps the middle of next week as low pressure cuts-off from the main flow of the jet stream allowing it to sit and spin over the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes vicinity from Sunday into the early or mid part of next week. The other long range models aren’t as enthused with the GFS solution Today so perhaps the GFS is up to no good.
Note: The 12z GFS from Today does look pretty extreme late this weekend and early next week considering were almost into early July…But the way this past Spring was I guess anything is possible.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Mostly sunny. High 80 to 85. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Friday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible late. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.
.Saturday… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 30%.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Sunday… Variable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 51 degrees
Tim
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