Issued at 5:14 PM CDT, Thursday, June 25th, 2009
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
(Today’s Weather)
A beautiful early Summer day across our area with plenty of Afternoon sunshine, gentle northwest winds, warm temperatures, and tolerable amounts of humidity. High temperatures Today were in the 70s and 80s with 4 PM 850 mb temperatures of +14 to +17 degrees C. Dewpoints were in the 40s and 50s Today with west or northwest winds at 10-20 mph. Today was mainly dry…however a few showers and thunderstorms erupted early This Morning mainly affecting western and southern parts of our area. Surface weather map late This Afternoon features an area of high pressure of 1012 mb over Southeast Manitoba Province with a cold front centered over the Central parts of Manitoba/Ontario Province.
(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)
A large H5 ridge continued to dominate much of the Central and Southern Plains This Afternoon with this ridge extending west through the Central and Southern Rockies. Active spots in terms of scattered strong to severe convection were noted on the northeast side of this ridge across Eastern Canada and the lower Great Lakes and on the northwest side of this ridge across the Northern Rockies This Afternoon. A strong upper level low had moved into Northwest Canada late Today with 60 meter H5 12 hour height falls associated with that feature across Alberta Province per RUC model analysis.
(Tonight)
High pressure will be in control of our weather although we will see that cold front to our north sag a bit to the south during the night. No precipitation is expected with that front since upper level riding will be found over our area Tonight. Lows will be in the 50s and low 60s with west or north winds under 15 mph.
(Friday and Friday Night)
High pressure will head off to our east during this period while a cold front settles into Northcentral Minnesota before stalling out and lifting back north as a warm front by Friday Night. Low pressure will be situated over the Western High Plains during this period with a southerly flow developing across our area out ahead of this low and on the backside of the area of high pressure. Looks like another very nice day on Friday with partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s with a few spots possibly nearing 90 degrees down toward Brainerd. Dewpoints are expected to hold in the 40s and 50s on Friday although muggier air will eventually return to southwest parts of our area by Friday Night. It does look mainly dry across the area during this period…Although showers or thunderstorms should start to affect Western-Southern parts of the area later Friday Night as a 30-40 knot LLJ advects deeper moisture and weak instability into our area. Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with partly-mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be out of the south or east during this period at 10-20 mph.
(Extended Forecast)
A fairly strong storm system for early Summer standards will affect our weather this weekend. Strong low pressure is forecast to lift north-east through the Upper Midwest on Saturday with this low then slowing down as it reaches Southern-Central Ontario Province from Saturday Night through late Sunday. A very potent upper level trough will also dig east-southeast into our area this weekend. Looks like we could be setting the stage for a period of windy weather especially from late Saturday into late Sunday as westerly winds increase to 15-30 mph across the area…But with H85 wind speeds of 40-55 knots…The surface winds could end up even stronger than what is expected at this time. Rain chances look greatest on Saturday as the low and it’s warm front/cold front track through the area. Still doesn’t look to promising for much in the way of severe weather around the area…although Northwest Wisconsin and possibly the far Eastern portions of Minnesota could be dealing with an isolated severe weather risk Saturday Afternoon if enough clearing can occur behind Saturday Morning’s glob of rain…although the severe threat will also hinge upon the timing of the cold front which right now appears to be through all of Northeast Minnesota between Noon-2 PM Saturday with the front pushing through Northwest Wisconsin between mid and late Afternoon Saturday. Could see some wrap around showers affect parts of the area later this weekend as the strong upper level trough/surface low move slowly to the east. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with some 80s possible on Saturday in Southern parts of our area. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. It should be noted that high temperatures on Sunday may struggle to get out of the 50s in the Arrowhead of Minnesota if clouds and rain are more persistent than what is expected right now.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
.Tonight… Clear. Low 56 to 61. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Mostly sunny. High 80 to 85 but turning cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible Overnight. Low 57 to 62. Chance of rain 20%.
.Saturday… Showers… A thunderstorm also possible. Mostly cloudy. High 67 to 72. Chance of rain 50%.
.Saturday Night… Variable cloudiness. Low 52 to 57.
.Sunday… Variable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73.
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 73 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 51 degrees
Tim
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