Issued at 3:07 PM CDT, Monday, March 29th, 2010
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Today’s Weather:
Southerly winds have increased in our area Today as high pressure of around 1018 mb pushes off to our east. Those south winds have been quite gusty Today with wind speeds of 15-30 mph! Warm advection has been occurring throughout the day across our area with H85 temperatures as of 2 PM pushing into the +1/+5 degree C range in Northwest Wisconsin and Northern Minnesota. High temperatures were in the 50s and lower 60s Today, but upper 30s and 40s were common from Downtown Duluth up along the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota thanks to an easterly wind. Skies for the most part have been mostly sunny Today, although we have seen some occasional high level clouds pass through from time to time.
Today’s 500 mb analysis:
West-northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery. A powerful jet stream of 130-160 knots covered the Pacific Northwest back through the Central Pacific Ocean Today per RUC model analysis. An upper level trough covered Western Canada/Northwest U.S., and the Northeast Pacific with 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 90-150 meters occurring in those areas. 500 mb ridge was in place from the Great Lakes through the Central/Southern Plains while an upper level trough was in place over the Eastern U.S.
Tonight:
Southwest low level jet of 30-40 knots will be found across the Upper Midwest Tonight which will result in more warm advection during the night. Clear-partly cloudy skies will cover Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with lows in the 30s and lower 40s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 5-15 mph, but gustier winds of 15-30 mph will persist away from Lake Superior This Evening.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night:
Southwest low level jet around 30-45 knots will continue at times during this period across the Upper Midwest. H85 temperatures are expected to range from +4/+10 degrees C across our area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night while dewpoints come up a bit from the 20s and lower 30s observed Today to the 30s and 40s on Tuesday while PWS climb toward 1/2″ during this period. Partly-mostly sunny skies are expected Tomorrow with highs mainly in the 60s, although it will be much cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 40s. Expect south or southeast winds at 10-25 mph across our area.
Extended Forecast:
500 mb trough will continue to develop across the Western U.S. through the week with a southwest flow aloft developing in the Upper Midwest while an upper level ridge sets up across the Southeast half of the U.S. from mid-week through this weekend. A cold front will settle south/east into the Upper Midwest from Wednesday through Friday with this boundary likely stalling out from Northwest Wisconsin down to Southern Minnesota from Thursday through Saturday before it gets a shove to the east later this weekend. A couple low pressure waves look to ride northeast along this front from mid to late week, with another low heading north from the Plains this weekend.
Wednesday into Thursday look mainly dry across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota while there will be a risk for some showers at times across Northern Minnesota. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 60s with a few 70s possible in Southern areas. Thursday’s highs will be in the 40s and 50s in Northern Minnesota to the 60s in Northwest Wisconsin. High temps will be around 40 degrees near Lake Superior on Thursday, perhaps on Wednesday too. Low temperatures will be mainly in the 40s both Wednesday and Thursday Nights.
The potential does exist for more significant rains around parts of our area from late this week into the weekend, but this will depend on the track of a system coming out of the Plains and where the frontal boundary sets up during that aforementioned time period, although it should be noted that the models are trending wetter for most of our area late this week/this weekend.
Thunderstorm chances appear pretty low at this time, however, the 12z NAM/WRF model from Today does show elevated CAPES around 500 j/kg developing on Thursday in parts of our area which would be supportive of some thunderstorm development, should enough lift and moisture occur near the cold front that will settle southeast into our area by mid-week. Any risk for thunder from Friday into Saturday should shift into Northwest Wisconsin or areas farther south the way it looks now.
Trends with the models right now indicate another storm system targeting the Upper Midwest around the middle of next week with rain possibly returning to parts of our local area at that time.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly sunny. High 62 to 67 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.
.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.
.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal High Temperature Today 40 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 22 degrees
Tim
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