Issued at 9:26 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 31st, 2010
Weather History:
On this date last year, the high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota was 31 degrees and we had 6.2″ of snow!
…RECORD MARCH WARMTH…
*High temperature of 71 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota Today tied the record high temperature for the date which was last set in 1986.
Weather tidbits:
*March 2010 featured 11 days with a high temperature of at least 50 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota. 2 days with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees and 1 day (Today) with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees!
*Last year, we had to wait until April 17th to get our first 70 degree day at Duluth, Minnesota.
*Today’s high temperature of 71 degrees was the first time above 70 since September 24th, 2009.
***UPDATED 30 DAY OUTLOOK*** Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on March 31st, 2010.
April 2010 Outlook
For Duluth: 33-40% chance for Above Normal Temperatures with a 33% chance for Above Normal Precipitation.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Today’s Weather:
A cold front passed east through Northern/Eastern Minnesota Today and was tracking through Northwest Wisconsin This Evening. Very Warm air was in place across our entire area Today with high temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s which is around 20-30 degrees above the normal high for the last day of March! 850 mb temperatures as of 9 PM ranged from +7 to +12 degrees C from northwest to southeast across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered our local area Today with another day filled with a cirrus deck thanks to strong upper level winds nearby. Surface map as of mid-Evening featured a cold front extending from Central Lake Superior to Central Wisconsin, this front then becomes stationary from Southeastern Minnesota to Central Iowa, then this boundary turns into a warm front from Central Iowa through Eastern Kansas to far Southwestern Kansas. A few areas of low pressure around 998 mb were found across the Central Rockies This Evening.
This Evening’s 500 mb analysis:
Pattern change is almost complete. Southwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest This Evening with a 500 mb ridge in place across the Southern U.S. while upper level troughs covered the Western U.S. and the Northeast U.S. Powerful upper level winds from 120-140 knots per RUC model analysis extended from the Southwest U.S. through the Northern Plains into Central Canada.
Overnight:
Clear-partly cloudy skies will be found across our area the rest of Tonight while the cold front off to our south/east becomes stationary in that area for the rest of Tonight. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with north, west or east winds under 15 mph.
Thursday and Thursday Night:
A strengthening warm front will be developing on Thursday over Southern Minnesota, this boundary will then shift north for Thursday Night as strong low pressure heads northeast out of the Western High Plains. Southerly low level jet of 30-50 knots will be developing across the Upper Midwest during this period which will cause strong warm advection to develop along with some increase in moisture. 850 mb temperatures which will range from +2/+8 degrees C from north to south in our local area on Thursday are forecast to rise to between +6/+14 degrees C by Thursday night (coolest north) and (warmest south). Dewpoints should climb into the 40s across Northwest Wisconsin/Eastcentral Minnesota by Thursday Evening/Overnight while 850 td’s climb to around +8 degrees C by Thursday Night.
An increase in elevated instability is also forecast across most of our area by Thursday Night with MUCAPES of 500/1000 j/kg expected along with lifted indices from zero/-2 degrees C. There is also a nice push of higher elevated Theta e advection that surges north with the warm front for Thursday Night.
It’s certainly possible that we could see some showers or thunderstorms break out in Western/Northern parts of our area Thursday Night as the warm front approaches along with the other parameters that are forecast to be in place at that time.
High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with some 60s in Southern areas. Lows Thursday Night will hold in the 40s and 50s. Expect east/southeast winds of 10-20 mph during this period with higher gusts possible especially near Lake Superior.
Extended Forecast:
Low pressure will be lifting northeast across the Upper Midwest for Friday and Saturday while a cold front heads east across our area from Friday Afternoon into Saturday. It does appear that will see some rain at times for Friday and Saturday across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with some locally heavy rainfall possible, although it’s still not entirely clear on where the heavier rains will set up for Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will be in the 60s in Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota with 40s and 50s in Northern Minnesota on Friday with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s expected for Saturday. Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s for both Friday and Saturday Nights.
Note: *Winter Storm Watches* have been issued for portions of the Dakotas for late Thursday and Friday with the potential of at least 4″ of snow in those areas.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 40 to 45. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph toward dawn.
.Thursday… Windy and much cooler compared to Today. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 52 to 57 but much cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph.
.Thursday Night… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 40 to 45. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts possible. Chance of rain 20%.
.Friday… Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 40%.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 37 to 42. Chance of rain 50%.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 45 to 50. Chance of rain 50%.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 30 to 35. Chance of rain 30%.
.Easter Sunday… Partly sunny. High 48 to 53.
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 41 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 23 degrees
Tim
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