Issued at 3:40 PM CST, Friday, January 28th, 2011
*Winter Storm Warning* remains in effect for Lake and Cook counties Minnesota until 4 PM CST Saturday.
*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect for Southern St. Louis and Carlton counties Minnesota and for Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties Wisconsin until 6 AM CST Saturday.
*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect for Midnight CST Tonight for Koochiching, Itasca, Northern Cass, Central and Northern St. Louis counties Minnesota and for Washburn, Sawyer, and Price counties Wisconsin.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Today’s Weather:
Low pressure of 1002mb has moved into Northwestern Minnesota as of 3 PM. A strong temperature gradient existed Today across the region with 50s in Western South Dakota and 30s in the Eastern Dakotas while single digits were common just north of Minnesota. 60 degree temperatures were as far north as Southern Nebraska This Afternoon with the 70 degree line to a Garden City to Wichita, Kansas line. Intense band of snow with hourly rates around an inch developed This Afternoon in Northcentral Minnesota, while spreading east-southeast. Strong warm advection, frontogenesis, and good upper level divergence helped in developing this band of moderate-heavy snowfall. The fast movement of this system is limiting the heavy snow to an hour or two, except from the Iron Range through the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Temperatures Today were in the teens and 20s with winds out of the southeast or east at 10-15 mph with some higher gusts.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Northwest 500mb flow persists Today with a 120 knot jet streak now moving through Northern Wisconsin late Today per RUC model analysis. A potent disturbance was heading southeast from the Manitoba Lakes region with a tight thermal gradient in place to the south of this system with 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from +6 degrees C in Southwestern Minnesota to -8 degrees C at Duluth to -16 degrees C around Thunder Bay, Ontario Canada.
Tonight:
Low pressure will track from Northwest Minnesota to Western Wisconsin This Evening to Southwestern lower Michigan by dawn. A band of moderate to heavy snow will continue to move through Northwestern Wisconsin through 8 PM This Evening with lingering snow showers and flurries persisting in these areas from mid-Evening and through the rest of Tonight. Snow should be fairly steady This Evening before tapering off to flurries and snow showers late Tonight along and northeast of a line from Northome and Grand Rapids to between Duluth and French River with areas southwest of this line seeing occasional snow showers and flurries Tonight. Patchy light freezing drizzle could also develop This Evening from the Brainerd Lakes area toward Aitkin and along the I-35 corridor in Minnesota, this risk could also extend into Northwestern Wisconsin. Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with some single digits in far Northern Minnesota. Winds This Evening will be out of the south or east, winds late Tonight will be from the east along the North Shore of Lake Superior with southwest or north-northwest winds for the rest of our area. Wind speeds Tonight will range from 10-20 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night:
A weak trough will extend northwest into the Upper Midwest during this period with high pressure well to our north. Lingering flurries and snow showers with under 1″ additional accumulation can be expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a considerable amount of clouds. Highs on Saturday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Saturday Night in the single digits and teens below zero in Northern Minnesota with single digits below to around 10 above zero readings for the rest of our area. Winds will be out of the east, north, or northwest under 20 mph during this period.
Note: E/NE winds will cause lake effect snow showers along the North Shore of Lake Superior Tonight and Saturday, the majority of this should remain northeast of the Twin Ports. Winds will begin to back to the north by Saturday Afternoon or Evening which will shift the lake effect snow shower threat to the South Shore, mainly affecting Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties.
Snowfall storm totals for Tonight:
Due to the quick moving nature of this system, snowfall totals should be in the 1-3″ range with 3-6″ totals occurring along and north-northeast of Highway 2 with amounts of 6-9″ possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior from French River and Two Harbors, to Silver Bay, Little Marais, Lutsen, and Grand Marais.
Note: Additional snowfall accumulations near Lake Superior will range from 1-3″ Saturday and Saturday Night.
Extended Forecast:
Computer models are starting to converge on a solution for next week…It does appear there will be a rather strong area of low pressure that will develop in the Southern Plains early next week before it lifts northeast toward the Ohio Valley around the middle of next week. Winter storm threat associated with this storm is forecast to remain well to our south/southeast. We may see some flurries around our area between Monday-Tuesday of next week due to an upper level trough that will settle south-east into the Upper Midwest, but the big story for our local area will be the approach of a strong 1050+ mb arctic high pressure
system which will build south-southeast out of the Northern Rockies early next week. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the single digits with lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens below zero with some 20s below certainly possible in Northern Minnesota.
Note: A northerly flow could lead to some lake effect snow showers at times along the South Shore of Lake Superior from Sunday through Tuesday with some accumulation possible.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing: Until 6 AM CST Saturday.
.Tonight… Occasional snow This Evening. Total accumulations 2-4″. Patchy light freezing drizzle possible This Evening. Scattered snow showers and flurries Overnight with additional accumulations under an inch. Low 15 to 20. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph, becoming south to southwest, then variable Overnight.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. Occasional flurries and snow showers. Accumulations 1″ or less. High 23 to 28. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy with flurries. Low 2 to 7 above.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. Flurries possible. High 8 to 13.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below.
.Monday… Partly sunny. High 5 to 10.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 5 to 10.
Normal temperatures for Today:
High: 19
Low: 0
Sunrise Tomorrow: 7:37 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow: 5:07 PM CST
Tim
Leave a Reply