Issued at 3:06 PM CST, Thursday, December 29th, 2011
- Tonight’s clipper takes a southerly route
- Southwest parts of our area could see up to 1″ of snow late Tonight-Friday AM
- Complex system for the holiday weekend, main impacts will probably be in Northern Minnesota
- Arctic air and strong winds Sunday and Monday
- Significant lake effect snow event possible for the South Shore snowbelts Sunday Night-Monday
Snowfall report for Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning, December 28th-29th, 2011
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
13 miles east-southeast of Gunflint Lake, MN (Cook County) 5.5″
Grand Portage, MN (Cook County) 5.0″
2 miles east-northeast of Hovland, MN (Cook County) 5.0″
3 miles west-southwest of Grand Marais, MN (Cook County) 5.0″
Lutsen, MN (Cook County) 4.5″
Sea Gull Lake, MN (Cook County) 3.5″
1 mile southwest of Tofte, MN (Cook County) 3.0″
Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis County) 2.7″
14 miles west of Isabella, MN (Lake County) 2.5″
2 miles east of Finland, MN (Lake County) 2.2″
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County) 2.1″
1 mile east of Payne, MN (St. Louis County) 2.0″
8 miles north of Bayfield, WI (Bayfield County) 1.5″
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County) 1.5″
Alborn, MN (St. Louis County) 1.3″
8 miles south-southwest of Cable, WI (Sawyer County) 1.2″
Culver, MN (St. Louis County) 1.0″
Ely, MN (St. Louis County) 1.0″
6 miles northeast of Cloverland, WI (Douglas County) 1.0″
Upson, WI (Iron County) 1.0″
Federal Dam, MN (Cass County) 1.0″
Dixon Lake, MN (Itasca County) 1.0″
5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 1.4″ officical NWS total.
Weather Tidbits:
*Zero subzero days this month in the Twin Cities. First time this has happened since December of 2002 and only the 8th December in the last 120 years to feature an above zero temperature the entire month. Other years that featured no subzero temperatures in December: 1913, 1918, 1952, 1954, 1974, 2002 and 2011. (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)
*Today marks the 13th day in a row with an above average high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.
Snow update:
18 days so far this month has had at least a trace of snow at Duluth, Minnesota with 3 one inch or greater snowfall totals. With that said, just 7.1″ of snow has fallen thru the 29th of December which is 9.3″ below average.
Weather History:
On this date in 1999: A record high temperature of 46 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1002mb covered the Central-Southern Great Lakes late This Afternoon with low pressure of 994-998mb extending from Southern Saskatchewan Province to Northern Nebraska. Light snow and flurries tapered off during the Morning with partly to mostly cloudy skies through the day. Highs ranged from the upper teens to lower 20s along and north of Highway 2 with upper 20s to lower 30s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Winds Today were calm or from the north-northwest around 10 mph or less.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
500mb flow was out of the west-northwest with one system off to our east with the next one diving SE into the Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery. 60-90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls were occurring with the storm across the Northern Rockies/Western High Plains per RUC model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from -8 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +2/+6 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota.
Tonight (December 29th)
Low pressure will reach a Westcentral Minnesota to Northern Iowa line Overnight. Snow and mixed precipitation associated with this low is forecast to remain west-south of our immediate area, although some light snow could reach the Cass Lake, Brainerd Lakes and Pine City areas after Midnight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the teens and lower 20s with some single digits in Northern Minnesota. Winds will be variable to east in direction at 12 mph or less.
Friday and Friday Night (December 30th)
Low pressure exits to our south/southeast on Friday. Some light snow or flurries are possible into early Friday Afternoon along and south of a line from Cass Lake to Sandstone to Shell Lake. Up to 1″ of accumulation is possible for those areas. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s. North or west winds on Friday will turn south Friday Night, wind speeds will be under 15 mph.
Extended Forecast (December 31st-January 2nd)
Low pressure from Manitoba Province to South Dakota Saturday Morning will head E-NE as an upper level trough digs into the Upper Midwest this weekend. The low and upper trough, combined with an arctic front moving SE into the region will lead to some precipitation for Saturday and Sunday. Snow should be the main precipitation type in Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead while locations further south could have a mixture of snow, rain and possibly even a little freezing rain on Saturday before the precipitation transitions to snow Saturday Night and Sunday. Note: The greatest snowfall accumulations appear to be setting up north of Highway 2…This area could see a 1-4″ snowfall between Saturday and Sunday, this would include the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Crane Lake, Ely, Hibbing, and Grand Marais. Snowfall accumulations of 1″ or less are forecast in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Saturday will mainly be in the 30s with lows Saturday Night in the teens and 20s. Much colder air works into the Upper Midwest for Sunday and Monday as low pressure deepens as it pulls off to our northeast while arctic high pressure of 1040+ mb builds in from the Western High Plains. The pressure gradient will tighten between the low and high, result from this will be for strong northwest winds with wind gusts possibly topping 30 mph Sunday and Sunday Night. 850mb temperatures will crash to the minus teens to around -20 degrees C for Sunday and Monday as a brief surge of arctic air invades the area. Temperatures on Sunday will likely fall into the single digits and teens during the day with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Highs on Monday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Monday Night ranging from around 15 below to 5 above zero.
Note: Wind chills will likely fall to between 10 below to 30 below zero across the Northland from Sunday Afternoon into Monday.
Long Range Forecast (January 3rd-9th)
Cold temperatures will linger on Tuesday (1/3) then will see a warmup from mid to late next week. Highs could top the freezing mark sometime late next week based on the latest model data. There might be a weak disturbance with a dusting of snow Tuesday-Wednesday with another possible system sometime late next week-next weekend (1/6-1/8) time frame.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible after Midnight. Low 13 to 18. Wind becoming east to northeast under 10 mph.
.Friday… Flurries possible early. Partly sunny. High 25 to 30. Wind northwest around 12 mph.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 17 to 22. Wind becoming south around 12 mph.
.New Year’s Eve… Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.
.Saturday Night… Light snow which could be mixed with freezing rain early. Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Chance of precipitation 30%.
.New Year’s Day… Breezy and turning colder. Snow showers and flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30 with falling temperatures. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph. Chance of snow 30%.
.Sunday Night… Breezy and cold. Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. Low zero to 5 above. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph. Wind chills of 10 below to around 25 below.
.Monday… Cold. Partly cloudy. High 8 to 13.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 19 degrees
Low: 3 degrees
Sunrise Friday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:29 PM CST
Tim
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