Issued at 8:00 PM CST, Wednesday, December 28th, 2011
- Much of the area will have a dusting to a few inches of new snow Tonight
- Next clipper takes a more southerly track Thursday Night-Friday AM
- A mild New Year’s Eve, turns sharply colder and quite windy New Year’s Day
- Weekend rain/snow event?
Weather Tidbits:
*24th least snowiest start to a winter at Rochester, Minnesota. 6.6″ of snow so far this season. (NWS La Crosse, WI)
*20th least snowiest start to a winter at La Crosse, Wisconsin. 4.3″ of snow so far this season. (NWS La Crosse, WI)
*The past 6 months has been the 2nd warmest on record since 1873 in the Twin Cities. The temperature has been almost 5.0 degrees above average. (Minnesota State Climate Office)
*On Monday, December 26th, a 750 acres brush fire occurred near the town of Gully, Minnesota (Northwest part of the state) in Polk County. (Updraft blog MPR)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Warm air advection moved across the area Today which led to a brief period of flurries/light snow with accumulations of 1/2″ or less. Some lake effect/enhanced snowfall also occurred Today along the North Shore of Lake Superior with 1.0″ of new snow reported at Lutsen (Cook County) as of 6pm per NWS Duluth. High temperatures Today ranged from the upper teens in the Arrowhead with 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. Winds were from the south or east under 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Fast northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with a clipper system heading E/SE through the Eastern Dakotas per water vapor satellite imagery while a 130 knot upper level jet was found on the backside of this system across the Western Dakotas per RUC model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from -10 degrees C in far Northeast Minnesota to +2/+4 degrees C in extreme Southwest Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (December 28th)
An area of low pressure currently in Eastern Dakota will move into Western Wisconsin by dawn. Light snow will affect much of our area during the night with some freezing rain possible as well for the Brainerd Lakes region. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the teens and 20s. Winds will be out of the south, east or north under 15 mph. Note: Total snowfall accumulations by Thursday Morning should generally be around 1″ with a few spots picking up around 2″ of snow. Up to 4″ of snow is possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior, mainly northeast of Little Marais.
Thursday and Thursday Night (December 29th)
Low pressure in Western Wisconsin Tomorrow Morning will continue to bring some light snow/flurries to Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota. This low moves farther away during the day with dry weather returning to our area Thursday Afternoon. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with winds out of the north or west under 15 mph. The next clipper system will drop SE into the Northern Plains Thursday Night. This second low looks to take a more southerly track compared to Tonight’s low, thus the main area of snow (1-2″ amounts) should fall from Westcentral through Southcentral Minnesota. Our area will be on the northern fringes of this system with some flurries/light snow with up to 1″ of accumulation possible mainly along and south of Highway 2. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s. Winds will be out of the north or east under 15 mph.
Extended Forecast (December 30th-January 1st)
Low pressure passes south/southeast of Northern Minnesota Friday Morning…Could be some light snow and flurries around mainly during the Morning in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Friday Afternoon-Friday Night look dry at this time. Kind of a tricky setup for the weekend. Looks like one area of low pressure will pass by to our NW-N while a secondary low could develop in the Western High Plains, this low could then head northeast…Merging with the other low north of Lake Superior on Sunday. Any precipitation that falls Saturday and Saturday Evening would be in the form of rain or snow and possibly even a little bit of freezing rain. Colder air advects into the region late Saturday Night and Sunday with 850mb temperatures dropping to the teens below zero late in the weekend. Some snow and flurries are possible from late Saturday Night into Sunday. Too early to tell just how much snow, rain and ice we could see this holiday weekend..stay tuned! High temperatures on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Saturday mainly in the 30s with some 40s possible in Southern areas. Highs on Sunday will be in the teens and 20s with falling temperatures during the day. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.
Long Range Forecast (January 2nd-8th)
A brief cold snap will affect the Upper Midwest early next week before temperatures warm back up once again from mid week thru next weekend. The flow aloft will transition from the N/NW back to the W/NW after Tuesday of next week the way it looks now. No big storms are forecast during this period.
Note: A period of significant lake effect snow could occur sometime Sunday-Monday along the South Shore of Lake Superior. Ashland and Iron Counties are at greatest risk for the possibility of a significant snowfall with a lesser chance in Bayfield and Douglas County.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Light snow developing by Midnight. Low 18 to 23. Wind east to southeast around 12 mph.
.Thursday… Light snow early. Total accumulations 1-2″. Considerable cloudiness. High 25 to 30. Wind north, becoming west at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible late. Low 13 to 18. Wind becoming east around 12 mph. Chance of snow 30%.
.Friday… Light snow or flurries possible during the Morning. Up to 1″ of accumulation possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 25 to 30. Chance of snow 30%.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 17 to 22.
.New Year’s Eve… Mostly cloudy. High 31 to 36.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light snow or mixed precipitation possible. Low 20 to 25. Chance of precipitation 30%.
.New Year’s Day… Breezy and turning colder. Mostly cloudy. Light snow and flurries. High 25 to 30 with falling temperatures. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph. Chance of snow 30%.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 19 degrees
Low: 3 degrees
Sunrise Thursday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:28 PM CST
Tim
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