Weather Blog for Duluth and the Northland

-Water vapor satellite loop of Today’s deepening storm that moved through Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Source:  MesoWest/NWS Duluth, MN

Hinckley:  1.97″

Moose Lake:  2.05″

Cromwell:  2.09″

Cloquet:  2.08″

Aitkin:  1.12″

Brainerd:  0.77″

7 N of Brainerd:  1.17″

Breezy Point:  0.87″

Pine River:  0.70″

McGregor:  1.25″

Saginaw:  1.97″

Deer River:  0.73″

Bigfork:  0.50″

Littlefork:  0.21″

International Falls:  0.22″

Orr:  1.07″

Ely:  1.16″

Two Harbors:  4.25″

7 NW of Two Harbors:  3.48″

Silver Bay:  2.48″

Isabella:  2.38″

Grand Marais:  2.85″

Grand Rapids:  1.95″

Scanlon:  3.49″

Wrenshall:  2.70″

4 SW of Hinckley:  4.00″

4 S of Bruno:  3.59″

Siren:  2.90″

Minong:  2.17″

Hayward:  2.67″

Barnes:  2.54″

Ashland:  2.67″

1 S of Solon Springs:  3.35″

Trade Lake:  3.00″

Shell Lake:  3.50″

4 N of Grantsburg:  3.60″

Duluth International Airport:  2.08″

West Duluth:  3.04″ measured at the WLSSD plant

Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

-7:30pm CDT 5/24/12:  FLOOD.  Taconite Harbor, MN (Cook County)  Water over road on Highway 61.

-7:30pm CDT 5/24/12:  FLOOD.  2 NE of South Range, WI (Douglas County)  Road washed out at County Road UU and Papano Road.

-5:45pm CDT 5/24/12:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 W of Prentice, WI (Price County)  Two 10″ diameter trees down on Highway 8.

-2:41pm CDT 5/24/12:  0.50″ HAIL.  2 SE of Winter, WI (Sawyer County)

-3:34pm CDT 5/23/12:  0.50″ HAIL.  2 SW of Proctor, MN (St. Louis County)

*4.65″ of rain so far this month/2.46″ above average.

*9.97″ of precipitation since March 1st/3.59″ above average.

*11.75″ of precipitation since January 1st/3.60″ above average.

*Flood Warning* for the Mississippi River near Aitkin, Minnesota.  Valid from Saturday Morning until further notice.

*Flood Advisory* for Southeast Lake County and Southern Cook County in Northeast Minnesota until 3:30am CDT Friday.

*Flood Advisory* for Price, Ashland, Iron, and Sawyer Counties in Northwest Wisconsin until 11:30pm CDT Tonight.

A deepening area of low pressure tracked from Northern Iowa to Westcentral Lake Superior Today.  This strong spring storm system brought another day of widespread rain to our area, some of the rain was heavy at times which led to areas of flooding.  Waves of thunderstorms also occurred Today, mostly in Northwest Wisconsin and extreme Eastern Minnesota.  The majority of these storms stayed below severe limits due to a lack of sufficient instability to offset the extreme amounts of wind shear that were in place Today.  High temperatures were in the 50s and 60s with much warmer 70s and 80s covering the southeast parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds were out of the south, north or east at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts.

-Map showing where there were lightning strikes at 2:20pm Today.  Note the concentration of lightning strikes in the Upper Midwest.

Note:  Quite a temperature contrast early This Evening.  86F at Madison, WI.  55F at International Falls, MN with 30s and 40s covering parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

A potent storm system with 60 meter 500mb height falls was moving NE through the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  An upper level low was heading SW through Southern Saskatchewan while another upper low tracks south through the Northwest U.S.  850mb temperatures ranged from -4C in Western Manitoba to +4 to +12C from northwest to southeast Minnesota.

Low pressure will deepen from 994mb early This Evening to around 987mb after Midnight as it tracks to just north of Lake Superior.  Wrap-around showers and patchy drizzle will continue in our area Tonight, although the precipitation will be ending from west to east as the low moves away.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees with breezy west, southwest or northwest winds at 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph developing during the night, especially in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast.

Looks dry during this period with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 40s, but 30s are possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds on Friday will be from the west at 10 to 25 mph.  Winds Friday Night will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

-Friday’s high temperature forecast.

Saturday:  High pressure will move into Ontario while a warm front creeps north toward Southern Minnesota.  A typical spring setup where will see dry/cool/stable air advect south off the Ontario high while low pressure over the Western High Plains and southerly flow across the Plains attempts to draw warm/moist/unstable air into our area.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Saturday with scattered showers.  Thunderstorms are also possible, especially by Saturday Night as elevated instability begins to increase with CAPE of 500-1000 j/kg spreading from south to north during the night.  If it does become unstable enough Saturday Night, there could be a few hailers due to favorable amounts of wind shear that will be in place.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Sunday:  Low pressure will move into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  A warm front will be draped from Central Minnesota to Northern Wisconsin with a cold front heading east out of the Dakotas.  A very warm, humid and unstable airmass will develop along and south of the warm front and ahead of the cold front.  Showers or thunderstorms are possible at times during this period.  

The Storm Prediction Center has most of Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday, all modes of severe weather will be possible as there appears to be sufficient amounts of wind shear, jet stream energy, moisture, and instability to produce severe thunderstorms.

Highs on Sunday will range from the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior with 60s, 70s and 80s elsewhere.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.

-Sunday’s severe thunderstorm threat area per SPC.

-3km EHI forecast for late Sunday Afternoon.  18z NAM run.  Higher values in Central, Eastern and Southern Minnesota…This could support severe thunderstorm development on Sunday.

-1km EHI forecast also for late Sunday Afternoon per 18z NAM forecast.  A couple pockets of higher values in parts of MN and WI…This could lead to severe weather/supercell thunderstorm development.  Stay tuned.

Memorial Day:  Low pressure and a cold front will be exiting our area to the east.  Could see some lingering showers on Monday, but thunderstorms and severe weather threats should be farther east of our area.  Highs on Monday will be in the 60s and 70s.

Could be some rain showers at times during the middle of next week (May 29th-31st) and another system might take aim at the Upper Midwest sometime around June 3rd-4th.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to below average during this period.

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Occasional light rain and drizzle ending late.  Considerable cloudiness with some clearing Overnight.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Friday…  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind north, becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Breezy.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55 but in the 40s near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 30%.  East winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 47 to 52.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Memorial Day…  Variable cloudiness.  High 63 to 68.

High:  65

Low:  43

Tim