Issued at 5:00 PM CDT, Friday, June 22nd, 2012
Tonight: Spotty showers early and scattered showers after after Midnight.
Saturday: Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible.
Sunday: Mainly dry with pleasant temperatures.
-15z SREF severe weather probabilities for late Saturday Afternoon/Evening. Northern areas of Minnesota could see a couple of strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms late Saturday PM. Gusty winds and hail would be the main hazards.
*Late Friday Afternoon Flood Update*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
*Flood Warning remains in effect for the following Counties, note the expiration times.
Aitkin, MN until 6 PM Sunday.
Carlton, MN until 6 PM Sunday.
Southeast Itasca, MN until 6 PM Sunday.
Southern St. Louis, MN until 6 PM Sunday.
Ashland, WI until 11 AM Sunday.
West Central Burnett, WI until 8 AM Saturday.
Central Pine, MN until 8 AM Saturday.
Southwest Carlton until 8 AM Saturday.
Crow Wing, MN until 12 PM Saturday.
Cass, MN until 12 PM Saturday.
*Flood Warning* continues for the St. Louis River at Scanlon. The stage was 15.7 feet as of 3:30 PM CDT Friday. Flood stage is 10.5 feet. Major flood stage is 13.0 feet. The river is forecast to remain at major flood stage until next Thursday, June 28th when it’s expected to fall to around 12.8 feet.
*Flood Warning* continues for the Mississippi River near Aitkin. The stage was 17.5 feet as of 4 PM Friday. Flood stage is 12.0 feet. Moderate to major flooding is expected to continue through late next week. The river is forecast to reach around 20.0 feet on Monday, June 25th.
*Flood Warning* continues for the Mississippi River at Brainerd. The stage was 15.9 feet as of 3:30 PM Friday. Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
*Flood Warning* continues for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley. The stage was 11.5 feet as of 3 PM Friday. Flood stage is 10.0 feet. Minor to moderate flooding is expected through late next week. The river is forecast to rise to near 13.3 feet on Tuesday, June 26th.
-Watch/Warning map from the National Weather Service.
Green=Flood Warning
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
There’s been a few showers Today across far Northeast Minnesota and in eastern parts of Northwest Wisconsin, however, the majority of our area remained dry. Skies were partly to mostly sunny with high temperatures mainly in the 70s. Winds were out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis shows a west-northwest flow covering the Upper Midwest. An upper level disturbance was moving SE through the Great Lakes with an upper trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and an upper level ridge over parts of the Southern Plains. 850mb temperatures in Minnesota as of 4pm ranged from +11 to +17C.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (June 22nd)
Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy. There could be a some showers, especially later in the night, mainly along and south of Highway 2 in Northeast Minnesota. Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with west or south winds at 5 to 15 mph.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Saturday and Saturday Night (June 23rd)
A cold front is forecast to move south-southeast across our area. The atmosphere will become a little unstable along and ahead of this boundary with CAPE of 500-1500 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -1 to -3C. Dewpoints are expected to rise to around 60F with PWS of 1.00-1.25″, possibly a little higher, 850mb dewpoints of +10 to +14C.
Scattered showers or thunderstorms could develop at times during this period with isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms during the Afternoon and Evening, primarily in Northcentral Minnesota. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear of around 30-40 knots with a NW flow aloft may lead to a few stronger storms, as long as we can get sufficient amounts of heating and instability during the day.
Widespread heavy rain is not expected with this front, but with the higher levels of moisture in place, you certainly can’t rule out brief heavy downpours here and there.
Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with a few 80s possible in Southern areas. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees.
-A low (5% chance) for severe thunderstorms in Northcentral Minnesota on Saturday per SPC.
-Saturday’s high temperature forecast
-Cold front lined up from Southwest to Northeast Minnesota at 7 PM Saturday per HPC. Will it be enough to trigger some convection, we shall see…
Extended Forecast, Sunday-Tuesday (June 24th-26th)
High pressure will dominate our weather as it moves slowly through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes behind Saturday’s cold front. Right now this whole period looks dry with high temperatures in the 70s for Sunday and Monday with 70s and 80s for Tuesday. It will be cooler near Lake Superior, especially on Sunday. Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s Sunday Night and Monday Night.
Long Range Forecast (June 27th-July 3rd)
Looking kinda warm the middle of next week as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds a bit to the north out of the Central Plains. A cold front could then drop southeast later next week with possible showers or thunderstorms, sometime around June 28-29. Another chance for showers or thunderstorms is possible between July 1-3. Temperatures through this period should be near to above average.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers possible after 4 AM. Low 55 to 60. Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Saturday… Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
.Saturday Night… Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind becoming north at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Sunday Night… Mostly clear. Low 48 to 53.
.Monday… Mostly sunny. High 72 to 77.
.Monday Night… Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55.
.Tuesday… Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 73
Low: 52
Sunrise Saturday: 5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 9:07 PM CDT
Saturday’s UV Index: 8.0/Medium-High
Tim
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