Issued at 4:35 PM CDT, Saturday, June 23rd, 2012
Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday: Dry skies with some sunshine.
Monday: Dry and pleasant.
-Storm Prediction Center continues to have Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin in a low (5% risk) area for severe thunderstorms This Evening with large hail being the main threat.
*Flood Warning* for the St. Louis River near Scanlon affecting Carlton County. At 4:30 PM Saturday the stage was 14.9 feet. Flood stage is 10.5 feet. Major flood stage is 13.0 feet. Forecast to rise to near 15.3 feet on Sunday and will remain in major flood stage through next Thursday, June 28th before falling to moderate flood stage next weekend.
*Flood Warning* for the Mississippi River near Aitkin affecting Aitkin County. At 4:00 PM Saturday the stage was 17.8 feet. Flood stage is 12.0 feet. Forecast to rise to near 19.1 feet the middle of next week and remain in major flood stage through late next week. Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
*Flood Warning* for the Mississippi River at Brainerd affecting Crow Wing County. At 4:30 PM Saturday the stage was 16.5 feet. Flood stage is 13.0 feet. The record flood stage is 16.7 feet on April 30th, 2001. The river level of 16.5 feet This Afternoon breaks the 2nd highest crest on record of 16.03 feet on April 10th, 1997.
*Flood Warning* for the Mississippi River near Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing Counties. At 4:00 PM Saturday the stage was 12.0 feet. Flood stage is 10.0 feet. Forecast to rise to near 13.0 feet during the middle of next week. Minor to moderate flooding is expected through late next week.
-Here’s the significant river flood outlook per NCRFC. Flooding continues to be a major concern in parts of the Northland, although conditions should begin to slowly improve toward late next week.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A cold front was sagging south/east out of Southern Manitoba This Afternoon. An area of scattered showers moved east through parts of the Northland during the Morning and early Afternoon hours, but rainfall totals were on the light side, generally <0.10". As of late Afternoon, the only showers left in our area were in Northwest Wisconsin and Arrowhead of Minnesota, but these showers are few and far between. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today with highs in the 60s and 70s. Winds were from the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis. An upper level trough was over the Pacific Northwest with an upper level ridge covering the Southwest U.S. and portions of the Southern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from +11 to +17C in Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (June 23rd)
A cold front will be moving south/east through the Northland. There is some instability moving into our area along and ahead of this boundary This Evening with CAPE <1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of 0 to -2C. No shortage of wind shear with 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear from 30-50 knots. Mid and upper level winds will also be quite strong and out of the NW. Dewpoints will generally be around 60F with PWS around 1.25" and 850mb dewpoints around +10C.
Can’t rule out some showers or thunderstorms in our area Tonight as that boundary interacts with a weakly unstable environment, if the instability was higher there’d probably be some severe weather, but since it’s not, the chance for severe thunderstorms is on the low side…Although an isolated severe threat does exist before Midnight, mainly from International Falls and Northome, south to Bigfork and Grand Rapids, to Cass Lake, Walker, and Brainerd Lakes. Hail and gusty winds would be the main hazards if any storm turns severe This Evening.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or north at 5 to 15 mph.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Sunday and Sunday Night (June 24th)
High pressure heads into the Upper Midwest behind Tonight’s cold front. Partly cloudy skies are expected this period with highs in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the north or east at 10 to 20 mph.
-Sunday’s high temperature forecast
Extended Forecast, Monday-Wednesday (June 25th-27th)
Monday and Tuesday will be dry with high pressure moving slowly off to our east. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows mainly in the 50s. By next Wednesday, a cold front will attempt to move into the Upper Midwest, but very warm temperatures aloft should cap the atmosphere, meaning little if any thunderstorm development in our area, even with increasing amounts of moisture and instability. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s for next Wednesday.
Here’s the 700mb temperature forecast for early Wednesday Morning per 18z NAM forecast. In June, a strongly capped airmass occurs when H7 temps reach +12 to +13C. Looking at this map shows H7 temps of +14 to +18C blasting NE out of the Northern Plains for Wednesday.
Long Range Forecast (June 28th-July 4th)
Weather pattern looks fairly quiet in our neck of the woods for next Thursday-Sunday (June 28-July 1st) An upper level ridge will cover portions of the Central Plains with a west or west-northwest flow north of this ridge across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The upper level pattern may amplify a bit from July 2nd-4th with a possible trough taking shape out west. This coudl increase the chance for showers or thunderstorms across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest between the 2nd-4th of July. Temperatures through this period will be near to above average.
-5 day precipitation forecast from the HPC. This is valid through Thursday, June 28th, 2012. After Tonight’s rain chance, the next several days are looking dry in much of Minnesota, including in the Northland.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Variable cloudiness. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 55 to 60. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming north late. Chance of rain 40%.
.Sunday… Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday Night… Mostly clear. Low 47 to 52. Wind northeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Mostly sunny. High 72 to 77.
.Monday Night… Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55.
.Tuesday… Mostly sunny. High 73 to 78.
.Tuesday Night… Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 73
Low: 52
Sunrise Sunday: 5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 9:07 PM CDT
Duluth-Superior Harbor water temperature as of June 23rd: 56.8F
Tim
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