Issued at 7:08 PM CDT, Sunday, July 1st, 2012
Tonight: Mild and muggy. Spotty showers and thunderstorms.
Monday: Warm and muggy. A few showers/t-storms. (Severe?)
Tuesday: Warm. Muggy south areas, less humid north of the Iron Range.
-12z High-Res NAM forecast for late Monday Afternoon. This model run shows supercells and a possible bow echo developing from Westcentral into Northern Minnesota.
-12z High-Res NAM forecast for late Monday Evening. A bow echo could be plowing through parts of Northwest Wisconsin. This is just 1 model’s take on how things could play out on Monday, as I state below the computer models are struggling a bit with Tomorrow’s setup.
Weather Tidbits:
*24 thunderstorm days so far this year at Duluth, Minnesota
*Today marks the 5th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 80F at the Duluth Airport. Have to go back to September 8-12, 2011 for the last time we put together a similar streak of 80 degree high temperatures.
*On this date last year: The high temperature was 91F at Duluth, Minnesota.
*Updated July Outlook for Duluth: 50% chance for Above Normal Temperatures with equal chances for Above, Below, or Normal Precipitation. (Climate Prediction Center)
…July Climate Averages for Duluth, Minnesota…
Normal temperature: 65.8F
Normal precipitation: 3.85″
Sunrise on the 1st: 5:19 AM
Sunrise on the 31st: 5:48 AM
Sunset on the 1st: 9:06 PM
Sunset on the 31st: 8:41 PM
High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
June 24-30, 2012:
June 24th: 71F/2 degrees below normal
June 25th: 73F/Normal
June 26th: 77F/3 degrees above normal
June 27th: 85F/11 degrees above normal
June 28th: 84F/10 degrees above normal
June 29th: 86F/12 degrees above normal
June 30th: 83F/8 degrees above normal
Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
June 24-30, 2012:
June 24th: 53F/1 degree above normal
June 25th: 47F/5 degrees below normal
June 26th: 50F/2 degrees below normal
June 27th: 60F/7 degrees above normal
June 28th: 65F/12 degrees above normal
June 29th: 59F/6 degrees above normal
June 30th: 59F/6 degrees above normal
Note: Last week’s rainfall total: 0.07″
Normal: 1.08″ we were 1.01″ below normal
-Temperature departure for last week. Duluth was around 3.0 degrees above average.
-Precipitation departure for last week. A very dry week in the Northland. Duluth saw only 10% of their average rainfall last week.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A very warm and moderately humid day as we begin the month of July. Highs were in the 80s to lower 90s with 70s closer to Lake Superior. Dewpoints were in the upper 50s to middle 60s with winds from the south or east at 5 to 15 mph. A very unstable and moist airmass moved into our area This Afternoon, and this combined with a warm front lifting slowly north out of Southern Minnesota led to spotty showers and thunderstorms in parts of our area. The storms that did develop moved very slowly with weak mid level winds in place, shear wasn’t the greatest either, so severe weather hasn’t been an issue in the Northland Today.
-Here’s a visible satellite loop from Today. Note the towering explosions in the atmosphere during the Afternoon hours.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
The pattern remains nearly the same as in previous days. Upper level ridge continued to blanket the Central/Southern Plains, an upper level trough was over the Northwest U.S., while a west or west-northwest flow was found from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the Northeast U.S. per RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranged from +20 to +22C in Central and Southern Minnesota to around +18C across Northern Minnesota.
-500mb analysis for 7 AM Sunday, July 1st, 2012
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (July 1st)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with spotty showers and thunderstorms. The main hazards from these storms will be from heavy downpours and lightning, the overall severe threat remains quite low, despite favorable amounts of instability and moisture. Lows will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with some 50s possible closer to Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Monday and Monday Night (July 2nd)
An area of low pressure will move east or east-northeast out of the Dakotas with a warm front and cold front attached to this low, both of those boundaries will affect our weather during this period. Looks like the atmosphere will become very unstable with CAPE of 2000-4000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -5 to -10C. Should be no shortage of moisture with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s, PWS of 1.25-1.75″ and 850mb dewpoints of around +14C.
Mid level winds will come up a bit as a disturbance moves east out of the Dakotas, and a low level jet may also strengthen to around 30 knots or so by the Afternoon-Evening hours. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear is forecast to be around 30-35 knots with 1km Helicity increasing to around 200 m2/s2 by late Afternoon/Evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could occur at times during this period in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. A few of the storms could become severe with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats, although an isolated tornado threat can’t be ruled out, especially from Cass Lake and Walker, to Bigfork and Grand Rapids, south to Brainerd, and east toward Hill City and Aitkin. Heavy rain is also a real threat due to the high amounts of moisture in the air.
Note: The computer models are struggling a bit on where storms will occur and the timing of them, so it’s best to monitor weather forecasts during the day Monday for updates, and for possible watches/warnings.
High temperatures on Monday will be in the 80s and 90s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Afternoon heat indices could reach the 93-100F range in a few locations. Lows Monday Night will be in the 60s and 70s. Winds during this period will be out of the south, east, or west at 10 to 15 mph.
-Monday’s high temperature forecast
-Storm Prediction Center has all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for Monday and Monday Night. Parts of our area is in a hatched threat, this could lead to a few significant severe weather events.
-HPC’s rainfall forecast for Monday Night. Heaviest rain targeting Northern Minnesota per HPC.
-12z High-Res NAM has the heavy rain corridor a bit more to the south for Monday Evening/Overnight.
Extended Forecast, Tuesday-Thursday (July 3rd-5th)
Tuesday: A cold front is expected to settle south and exit our area. As this front pushes south somewhat drier air should push into Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead where dewpoints could drop into the 50s. Elsewhere, expect another muggy day with dews in the 60s and 70s. Highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s with lows in the 60s, maybe some 50s up North. Looks mainly dry on Tuesday, even with the front nearby and high amounts of instability.
4th of July: Low pressure and it’s warm front and cold front will approach the Northland from the west-southwest. Another warm and muggy day is expected and there could also be a few showers and thunderstorms, with perhaps some severe weather once again. Highs will be in the 80s with cooler temps near Lake Superior. Lows will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Thursday: More very warm and muggy conditions are expected with a frontal boundary draped over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The risk for some showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday with possibly some severe weather once again. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s.
Note: Parts of the Northland may be under a heat advisory a few days this week due to the very warm temperatures and high amounts of humidity.
Long Range Forecast (July 6th-12th)
Showers and thunderstorms might linger into Friday, July 6th, but this will depend on the timing of the front and the computer models differ on how quick it will move through our area later this week. The upcoming weekend looks generally dry at this time. Showers or thunderstorms might return to the region on occasion from July 9-12. Temperatures are forecast to remain at or above normal through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy and humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
.Monday… Humid. Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 79 to 84 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Monday Night… Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
.Tuesday… Humid. Partly cloudy. High 81 to 86.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.4th of July… Humid. Partly sunny. High 80 to 85 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Wednesday Night… Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.
.Thursday… Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 83 to 88. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 75
Low: 54
Sunrise Monday: 5:19 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 9:06 PM CDT
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