Issued at 1:34 PM CDT, Monday, July 2nd, 2012
…Severe Thunderstorms possible through Tonight in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconisn…
If you’re away from Lake Superior it’s a steam bath at midday with temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s with dewpoints hovering in the upper 60s to lower 70s with heat indices of 90 to around 100 degrees as of 1 PM. Closer to Lake Superior, the temperatures are mostly in the 70s, but it’s still humid with dewpoints in the 60s.
An area of low pressure averaging 1006mb was located in Northern South Dakota early This Afternoon. A warm front extends east of that low into Central Minnesota with a cold front getting ready to move into the Eastern Dakotas.
The atmosphere is extremely unstable throughout the Northland. Meso-Analysis as of 1 PM showed CAPES of 2000-4500 j/kg with Lifted Indices from -3 to -10C. Very steep Lapse Rates continue to push into the area as well, ranging from 7.0-8.0 c/km.
The stage appears to be set for at least one or more rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late This Afternoon and Tonight.
The low and it’s warm front/cold front will continue to move east into Minnesota and an upper level disturbance will also move into the Upper Midwest. Lift associated with all those features should cause scattered convection in the Northland.
A very unstable airmass will remain in place through Tonight. This coupled with mid level winds of 30-40 knots, and wind shear also of 30-40 knots, combined with a low level jet of around 30 knots should be enough to cause some severe thunderstorms.
-The various computer models continue to be at odds as to where the best chance for severe weather will occur. A few of the models keep the bulk of the action north of Duluth, affecting Northern Minnesota, the Arrowhead, and then into Northwest Wisconsin, generally from Bayfield down toward Hayward and Park Falls. Some other forecast models hit Southern parts of our area the hardest, generally along and south of Highway 2.
The main hazards should be from damaging winds and large hail, but isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out…Especially from International Falls and Northome, south to Bigfork and Grand Rapids, and west to Cass Lake and Walker.
Heavy rainfall is also a concern due to the deep moisture in place. PWATS of 1.50-2.00″ will spread into the Northland, so any thunderstorm that develops will be able to dump some hefty rain amounts. The good news is that these storms should be moving rather quickly, but heavy rain may still lead to some localized flooding.
*Make sure you have a way to be notified should a watch or warning be issued for your area.
-The following 3 maps are from the 4km NSSL WRF model.
Map valid at 5:00 PM CDT Today
-8:00 PM CDT Tonight
-10:00 PM CDT Tonight
Tim
Canon T3i 18.0MP Digital SLR Camera with 18-55mm IS Lens – Digital
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