Issued at 3:55 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 3rd, 2012
Tonight: Mild. Humid south areas, not as humid from the Iron Range on north.
4th of July: East winds, cooler temps near Lake Superior. Still hot/humid elsewhere.
A few showers/t-storms?
Thursday: Less humid, still very warm…Mainly dry.
Weather Tidbits:
*Today marks the 6th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 80F at Duluth, Minnesota (June 28-July 3) Have to go back to last July 28-August 5 to find a longer streak, 9 days in a row at or above 80F.
*The first 5 months of 2012 have been the hottest on record in the U.S. June had 164 all-time hot temperature records that were either tied or broken. In 2011, there were only 47. (NOAA)
*Over 40,000 high temperature records across the Country so far this year. In comparison to 2011 which had 24,000 by this date, and finished as the 9th warmest. (NOAA)
*Over 3,200 heat records in the U.S. in June. Texas led the way with 237 followed by Colorado with 226, Kansas had 164, Missouri had 126, and Arkansas rounded out the top 5 with 125 heat records. (TWC)
*Jay Cooke State Park will remain closed until further notice because of damage on Highway 210 caused by the floods in June. (Fox 21 news)
*10,000 Lake Country residents are without power following Monday’s severe thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota. Itasca County was hit real hard, especially along the Highway 2 corridor where Itasca County Sherriff reports an extreme amount of property damage. (Duluth News Tribune)
*1 fatality in Itasca County, Minnesota due to the severe weather on Monday. (DNT)
*Visitors at Itasca State Park southwest of Bemidji, Minnesota were stuck because of down trees which blocked the park exit at 7:14 PM Monday. (DNT)
*A lightning strike sparked a garage fire at 328 S. 70th ave. west in Duluth, Minnesota at about 10:18 PM Monday. Damage estimates stand at $15,000. (DNT)
*Record heat in parts of Minnesota on July 2nd, 2012*
Twin Cities: 99F. Previous record: 96F in 1911.
St. Cloud: 97F. Previous record: 95F in 1921.
June 2012 Climate Summaries for select cities in Minnesota
Twin Cities:
Average monthly temperature: 72.3F/3.5 degrees above normal.
Precipitation total: 3.59″/0.66″ below normal.
St. Cloud:
Average monthly temperature: 68.8F/3.2 degrees above normal.
Precipitation total: 2.36″/1.81″ below normal.
International Falls:
Average monthly temperature: 62.9F/2.1 degrees above normal. 25th warmest June
Precipitation total: 2.43″/1.49″ below normal.
Duluth:
Average monthly temperature: 64.2F/4.1 degrees above normal. 3rd warmest June.
Precipitation total: 10.03″/5.80″ above normal. 3rd wettest June.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A real scorcher Today with high temperatures in the middle 80s to lower 90s. Very muggy south of the Iron Range where dewpoints ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s, but drier air has moved south into far Northern Minnesota where late day dewpoints have dropped off into the middle 50s to lower 60s. Afternoon heat indices were in the 90-98 degree range in the Southern portion of our area. Skies were partly to mostly sunny Today with winds out of the north, west, or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A large heat dome covered the Plains and portions of the Rockies while a westerly 500mb flow continued from the Northern Plains to Upper Midwest north of this ridge of high pressure per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +20 to +24C in Western, Central, and Southern Minnesota to around +18C in far Northern Minnesota.
-Today’s 500mb analysis
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (July 3rd)
A cold front (more or less a moisture boundary) shouldn’t get much farther south from where it is now, which is in Northern Minnesota. Another boundary is expected to remain nearly stationary in Central Minnesota. There’s plenty of instability and moisture in place to trigger thunderstorms Tonight, but the combination of a cap and a nearby ridge will make it hard for any convection to develop in the Northland Tonight. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy Tonight with balmy minimum temperatures which will be in the 60s and 70s with some 50s possible in Northern areas. Patchy fog could form in spots Overnight.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (July 4th)
Another warm and muggy day with high temperatures ranging from the 70s closer to Lake Superior with 80s and 90s elsewhere. Dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s. Afternoon heat indices should reach the 90s to low 100s in Southern parts of our area.
Low pressure with it’s warm front and cold front will be moving into the Northland during this period. Overall it’s a similar setup to Monday. There should be ample amounts of instability in place with CAPE of 2000-4500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -4 to -10C. Just marginal amounts of wind shear, however, with around 30 knots of 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear. Mid level winds should top out around 30-35 knots with the stronger winds aloft staying NW of our area.
Once again will have to deal with a cap (warm mid level temps) so there’s some uncertainty as to when or where thunderstorms could develop.
Right now it appears that Northern Minnesota would have the best chance for some showers and thunderstorms on Independence Day with lesser chances in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
If thunderstorms can develop, they could become severe with the energy and moisture in the air combined with just enough shear. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main threats.
PWATS of 1.50-2.00″ moving back into the Northland on Wednesday would also lead to a heavy rain risk, should thunderstorms develop.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with lows Tomorrow Night in the 60s and 70s. Winds will be from the southwest, north, or east at 5 to 15 mph.
-Wednesday’s high temperature forecast
-Storm Prediction Center has all of the Northland in a 5% risk area for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday Night.
Extended Forecast, Thursday-Saturday (July 5th-7th)
Warm temperatures should linger, but with less humidity for Thursday and Friday. Turns a bit cooler for Saturday. Doesn’t look like will see much rain in our area as the main frontal boundary sets up farther south, and that’s where the deepest moisture and instability will be located. Still can’t rule out a few showers or thunderstorms from time to time during this period, especially from Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 80s and 90s. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with 70s to lower 80s expected for Saturday. Low temperatures Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.
***NOTE*** A Heat Advisory is in effect until 10:00 PM CDT Thursday for Southern Cass…Crow Wing…Southern Aitkin…and Pine Counties in Minnesota. And for Burnett…Washburn…Sawyer…and Price Counties in Wisconsin.
Long Range Forecast (July 8th-13th)
A pattern change is coming during this period as an upper level ridge currently in the Central Plains pushes into the Western U.S. which will set up more of a NW mid/upper level flow for the Upper Midwest. This period also looks pretty quiet at this time with temperatures around seasonal averages.
-A pattern change is coming. Here’s the 500mb map for Friday, July 6th, 2012 per HPC.
-And here’s the 500mb map for Tuesday, July 10th, 2012 per HPC. Note the high and how it shifts from Northwest Missouri on Friday to Utah for next Tuesday. The core of the heat will move into the Western U.S. with this new pattern that develops.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Patchy fog possible late. Low 65 to 70. Wind north to northeast around 10 mph.
.4th of July… Humid but not as warm as Today. Partly to mostly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 80 to 85 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
.Wednesday Night… Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 60 to 65. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Thursday… Turning less humid. Warm. Partly cloudy. High 84 to 89.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 80 to 85.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 75
Low: 54
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:21 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 9:05 PM CDT
Tim
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